摘要
川普關稅戰第二季衝擊全球經濟與投資市場，引發全球股債資產劇烈震盪，帶來高度不確定性。第二季面對包括關稅、貿易戰、通膨等下行風險，餘震下的投資對策，建議分散配置，伺機布局做好準備。
美國總統川普挑起貿易戰、關稅、移民政策種種措施，市場更擔憂美國經濟成長是否因此下滑或陷入衰退，股債掀起劇烈震盪，短期股債資產波動恐將持續。瀚亞投資首席經濟學家Ray Farris表示，美國總統川普宣布的新關稅將美國有效關稅在不到四個月內從2024年底的2.2%提升至接近20%。如果目前正在進行第232條款調查的商品最終被加徵關稅（發生機率不低），美國的有效關稅可能會上升至25-27%，超過1930年霍利關稅法案後加徵的關稅，而該法案加劇了大蕭條。
瀚亞投信投資長林如惠表示，因應短線波動及政策所帶來的不確定性，第二季資產分散是最重要的策略，建議除美國以外，可將布局焦點轉至基期較低的市場，例如歐洲。投資人可以找到新的投資主題，例如歐洲國家提高國防軍事相關；債券資產更是第二季扮演風險平衡的重要角色，建議布局高評等債券。
債市：成熟國家信用債為主
瀚亞投信固定收益部主管周曉蘭表示，關稅衝擊成為最大下行風險，美國公債殖利率應也會反映未來降息之可能性而下降。此外股市投資人近期開始利用美國公債市場避險，也有助壓低公債殖利率。第二季較看好成熟國家投資級債與非投資級債為主，美元投資級債總報酬將持續受惠於殖利率下降，既有部位可以續抱，在經濟不確定性增加的情況下，優先選擇信用評級較高的債券，可受惠於利率走低及市場波動上漲影響。
建議投資人關注信用債，相較於2018年，目前信用債市表現更具韌性，尤其短期受到關稅政策的影響性與反應較為平淡，且企業過去幾年隨著經濟復甦、企業盈利能力提升，基本面明顯改善，違約率也低，能夠因應複雜的經濟情勢。
股市：評價大幅修正 中長線布局思維
由於對等關稅對總經的不確定性增加，企業獲利預期也必然受此因素影響而下修，導致市場避 險情緒升溫，美股短期維持高度波動將在所難免，惟認為中長期的投資思維不宜太過悲觀。第二季全球股市瞭望，已開發市場以美國、歐洲及日本分散布局，新興市場則看好台股、印度的中長線結構性利多，以及中國AI科技族群均有機會表現。
尤其是美股，一旦懲罰性關稅出現鬆動或政策面趨於明朗，企業基本面調整幅度可能低於當前股價所反映的悲觀預期，從而創造中長期股價反彈空間。
日本處於通膨回升與潛在的薪資正增長道路上，應該會支持國內經濟；企業獲利能力穩健，最新一季日本企業經常性利潤來到2007財年以來新高。而印度本身為內需型經濟體，出口佔GDP比重不到15%，受對等關稅衝擊影響較輕微，加上國內通膨下行與政府財政赤字改善、稅收與外匯持續創新高，印度政府具備政策支持的本錢並將如年初年度預算施政方向及央行理監事會議上所揭示，將持續挹注市場流動性及推出經濟刺激政策。市場預估印度在本年度除了在2月降息25bp後，將有再降息50bp的空間（原先預期25bp）。
台股大盤看法偏中性，主要因產業跟著全球情勢走，且美國關稅政策使股價有所壓抑。指數區間上半年預估20,000-24,500點區間，2025年預估本益比16.5倍，符合過去五年14到20倍之間水準。看好產業包括工業電腦、機器人、紡織、製鞋、原物料等，可從AI及低基期角度選股。
2025年第二季精選基金清單
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