【美高收債】2021年5月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國市場5月份表現正向,企業基本面在經濟活動解封下持續改善,每個月持續有更多人接種新冠疫苗。

美國中長天期公債殖利率仍維持在高於3月初的區間,殖利率5月小幅下降,但相比年初,仍維持於高點(10年期公債殖利率本月下降7個基點至1.58%,年初至今上升65個基點)。

在基本面改善的推動下,截至5月份,美國高收益債連續8個月正報酬,由於信評狀況改善且違約率下降,市場持續消化高收益債的高供給量。

美國高收益債指數5月份上漲0.29%,年初至今上漲2.31%;利差收斂5個基點至335個基點,年初至今仍收斂52個基點,為2018年第4季以來最低。

5月份,較低品質債券表現較佳

• 5月份:BB 0.25%;B 0.17%;CCC及以下 0.80%

• 年初至今:BB 1.15%;B 2.35%;CCC及以下 7.46%

5月份,金融及能源債領漲,漲幅分別為0.94%及0.84% ,醫療保健及公用事業下跌,分別為-0.43%及-0.38%。年初至今,能源債領漲7.36%,所有產業中僅公用事業下跌。

5月份,高收債調升信評金額為390億元美元,降評金額僅140億元美元。

5月份違約率下降98個基點至6.69%,連續四個月下降;賤售比率(違約率的領先指標)儘管小幅上升4個基點至2.35%,仍然保持在較低水準。

高收益債券5月份總發行量達460億美元,年初至今發行量2,420億美元,年增56%。5月份淨發行量150億美元,年初至今淨發行量910億美元,年增77%。

5月份高收益債資金淨流出40億美元,年初至今淨流出70億美元。

基金總覽:

5月份,本基金在媒體及消費/通訊服務/租賃金融的佈局帶來正貢獻,分別貢獻了6個基點及3個基點。相反地,本基金在製藥及採礦業的選債影響表現,分別影響5個基點及2個基點。

未來展望:

• 利差收斂至低於金融海嘯後水準,但我們認為基本面持續改善可以支撐利差維持在低檔一段時間。

• 我們預計企業基本面將持續改善,因為公司獲利持續增長、去槓桿化和債務到期日展延等利多支持。

• 我們認為高收益債違約率、墮落天使的前景皆呈現正向發展。

• 較高收益率將使高收益債持續吸引全球投資人對該資產類別的需求。

 
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