【美高收債】2021年4月基金評論

市場總覽:

4月份美國市場持續上漲,主要受經濟數據表現佳、企業財報優於預期且政府可能推出更多刺激法案等推動。

美國中長天期公債殖利率4月份微幅下降,但年初至今仍維持高點(10年期公債殖利率本月下降9個基點至1.65%,年初至今上升72個基點)。

在基本面改善的推動下,4月份美國高收益債連7個月正報酬。由於信評狀況回穩且違約率下降,市場持續消化高收益債的高供給量。

美國高收益債指數4月份上漲1.09%,年初至今上漲2.01%;利差收斂7個基點至330個基點,年初至今收斂57個基點,為2018年第4季以來最低。

4月份,較低品質債券表現較佳:

- 4月份:BB 1.11%;B 0.98%;CCC及以下 1.34%

- 年初至今:BB 0.90%;B 2.17%;CCC及以下 6.61%

高收益債券4月份總發行量達460億美元,年初至今發行量1,930億美元,年增74%。4月份淨發行量160億美元,年初至今淨發行量600億美元(對比於去年4月僅90億美元)。

4月份高收益債資金淨流出20億美元,年初至今淨流出30億美元。

基金總覽:

4月份,本基金在媒體及油田設備與服務的選債帶來正貢獻,分別貢獻了3個基點及2個基點。相反地,基金在多元媒體及菸草的選債影響表現,分別影響2個基點及1個基點。

年初至今,本基金在媒體及能源(探勘和生產)的選債帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻18個基點及13個基點。反之,本基金在娛樂影視及油田設備與服務拖累表現,分別影響8個基點與6個基點。

未來展望:

利差已收斂至低於金融海嘯後平均水準,但我們認為基本面持續改善可以支撐利差維持在低檔一段時間。我們預計企業基本面將持續改善,因為公司獲利持續成長、去槓桿化和債務到期日展延等利多支持。

我們認為高收益債違約率、墮落天使的前景皆呈現正向發展。較高收益率將使高收益債持續吸引全球投資人對該資產類別的需求。

 
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