【美國優質債】2021年12月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國市場在12月反彈,尤其是在月底,因為市場預期Omicron變種病毒將不會導致經濟停擺;與此同時,市場對美國聯準會加快縮減資產購買規模的決定反應不大,因為此舉在很大程度上符合預期。

12月美國公債曲線在風險資產上漲的情況下上移——10年期殖利率上升9個基點至1.52%;2021年曲線也上移,並在此過程中趨於平緩——10 年期公債殖利率增加了 59 個基點。

繼11月彭博美國信用指數利差擴大11個基點後,在12月收窄6個基點,2021年收窄5個基點,收於87個基點;超額報酬也出現了類似的情況——在11月下跌83個基點之後,該指數的超額報酬在12月反彈了58個基點,使當年的報酬達到151個基點。

然而,由於美國公債的拋售,該指數在12月份的總報酬率為-0.08%;2021年,該指數報酬率為1.08%。

12月,除一個產業板塊外,所有產業皆為正報酬;與政府相關的債券表現存在顯著差異,主權債券(216個基點)在整年大部分時間表現不佳後,表現優於所有其他產業,而地方政府債券(-37個基點)是唯一表現為負的產業;2021年,除一個產業板塊外,所有產業皆為正報酬;但主權債券儘管在12月表現出色,但仍以負報酬(-10個基點)收尾,而金融產業表現領先(447個基點)。

投資級公司在12月發行了620億美元的債券,但由於大量贖回,當月淨供給量為負(-130億美元);2021年,公司發行了1.673兆美元的投資級債券,相較2020年下降20%,但為有記錄以來的第二高年份。

12 月投資級資金持續流入20億美元。

基金總覽:

12月,本基金在不動產投資信託(REIT)和多元化資本財中的選債,以及對後者的減持是相對利差報酬的最大貢獻者,分別增加2個基點。而在航空運輸和電信無線領域的選債是相對利差報酬的最大拖累者,分別減損1個基點。

年初至今,本基金對航空運輸和天然氣分銷的選債和增持為相對利差報酬的最大貢獻者,分別增加了10個基點和9個基點。而在銀行業的選債為相對利差報酬的最大拖累者,減少4個基點。此外,本基金在遊戲領域的超配配置和選債是相對利差報酬的第二大拖累者,減少3個基點。

未來展望:

•我們仍然認為產業循環和選債對於產生超額報酬仍然至關重要

  −基本面持續改善;我們專注於關注可能受益的產業(例如,銀行由於當前的評價水準、穩健的資產負債表及利率上升而具有潛力)。

  −技術面也十分正向;資產類別持續獲得新發行債券之供給而帶來的資金流入。

  −我們持續關注相對價值,因整體評價水準仍處於歷史低位。

• 目前仍存在市場波動的可能性,尤其是在聯準會縮減資產購買規模並重申升息議題的情況下

  −我們將持續尋找機會以重新制定投資策略。

• 市場風險包括聯準會貨幣政策正常化、通膨持續升高,及供應鏈問題將可能對企業盈利產生負面影響。

 
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