【美國優質債】2021年11月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國市場在11月面臨一系列不利因素,包括利率波動、市場大量供應的新發行債券以及聯準會可能加速縮減資產購買規模的想法;然後發現了 COVID-19 的新變種病毒Omicron ;最終,部分風險資產被大量拋售,而長天期公債收益率在避險性交易中下降。

美國公債曲線在11月約略持平(儘管程度與10月不同);5年期以下的公債殖利率走高(2年期殖利率上升4個基點至0.52%),而5年期及以上的殖利率走低(10年期殖利率下降12個基點至1.43%)。

由於利率波動、供給增加和加速縮減購債的可能性,美國投資級債券利差在11月後半開始擴大;並在月底 Omicron 爆發時進一步擴大。

彭博美國信用指數的利差在11月擴大11個基點至94個基點,今年迄今擴大了2個基點;該指數的超額報酬為-83個基點,幾乎將年初至今的收益砍半至94個基點;受惠於長期公債殖利率下降(該指數的存續期間約為8.5年),該指數在11月份錄得0.08%的微幅正報酬;年初至今的報酬率為-1.00%。

11月,除一個產業區塊外,所有產業都產生負的淨報酬;與政府相關的債券表現迥異,因為超國家 (2個基點)、機構 (-9個基點) 和地方政府債 (-16個基點) 在所有行業中表現最佳,而主權債券(-157個基點) 表現最差;能源(-145個基點)和交通(-132個基點)也表現不佳。

投資級公司在11月發行了1140億美元的債券,使年初至今的發行量達到1.61兆美元;並可能會發行更多債券,但由於Omicron的侵襲和擴大的利差,導致公司延後發行,因此在本月的最後幾天初級市場較平靜。

儘管市場出現資產拋售,但投資級債市在11月仍流入($100億美元),將年初至今的流入量提高至1230億美元。

基金總覽:

11月,基金的選債和對經紀商和銀行業務的增持是相對利差報酬的最大貢獻者,分別貢獻了3個基點和2個基點。 而在軟體服務和不動產投資信託(REIT)中的選債拖累相對績效,分別減損2個基點和1個基點。

年初至今,基金的選債和對航空運輸與天然氣分銷的增持貢獻相對績效表現,分別貢獻了11個基點和9個基點。而本基金在銀行業的選債拖累相對績效,減損6個基點。此外,該基金在博弈方面的增持也減損績效表現 3個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們仍然認為產業循環和證券選擇對於產生超額報酬仍然至關重要

−基本面持續改善;我們會關注可能受益的產業(例如,銀行由於當前的估值、資產負債表、利率上升的潛力)。

− 技術面也十分正向;市場資金持續流入,而我們預計新發行的供給量將在年底前減少。

− 我們持續關注相對價值;利差最近有所擴大,這可能會提供策略投資機會,但整體利差仍處於歷史低位。

• 存在市場波動的可能性,尤其是在聯準會縮減資產購買規模並重申升息議題的情況下

− 我們將繼續尋找機會重新制定我們的策略。

• 市場風險包括聯準會貨幣政策正常化、通膨持續走高以及供應鏈問題對企業利潤產生負面影響。

 
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