【美國優質債】2021年10月基金評論

市場總覽:

10月資產類別表現分歧;美國股市和原油雙雙上漲,前者受企業盈利推動,後者受供應問題和市場對未來需求的預期推動;與此同時,美國公債曲線趨於平緩,而企業債券則出現溫和波動。

美國公債曲線在10月份明顯移動;中期曲線殖利率飆升(例如,2年期殖利率上升20個基點至 0.48%,7年期收益率上升12個基點至1.44%),而30年期殖利率下降15個基點至1.93%;事實證明,10年期公債殖利率在一定程度上是曲線趨平的支撐點,因其小幅上漲3個基點至1.55%。

10月份投資級利差在區間波動,到月底略有擴大,但總報酬仍溫和上漲。

彭博美國公司債指數利差10月份擴大3個基點至82個基點,年初至今收斂9個基點,超額報酬1個基點,年初至今超額報酬75個基點;該指數10月份總報酬率為 0.22%;投資級債券存續時間約為8.5年,這意味著中期公債的拋售僅對投資級債和總報酬產生間接影響;年初至今下跌1.09%。

10月份產業表現喜憂參半,在超額報酬的基礎上,其中交通(46個基點)和金融債(39個基點)領漲,而通訊服務(-20個基點)和銀行(-17個基點)則落後;年初至今,能源(452個基點)、金融債(441 個基點)和地方政府 (423個基點)領先,而主權債(-65個基點)、超主權國家(16個基點)和機構 (44個基點)則落後,顯示公司債券表現優於政府債。

投資級公司在10月份發行了1,430億美元的債券,年初至今的發行量達到近1.4兆美元;鑑於疫情和經濟停擺導致2020年的發行量創紀錄,較去年下降23%,但與其他年份相比仍高(與2019年相比成長 28%)。

投資級債市場 10 月份繼續流入(80億美元),使2021年的流入量達到 1,120億美元。

基金總覽:

10 月,基金在綜合能源、電力和金屬/採礦(鋼鐵除外)中的選債表現是最佳,分別增加了1個基點。

相反地,基金對銀行和經紀業務中的配置拖累報酬,分別降低績效約2個基點。此外,有線電視和衛星電視的選債也影響績效表現1個基點。

年初至今,該基金的選債及加碼航空運輸和天然氣增加績效,分別貢獻10個基點和9個基點。基金加碼銀行業則影響績效8個基點。此外,加碼博弈產業也影響基金表現4個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們認為產業輪動和選債仍然重要

− 基本面持續改善;我們專注於獲得我們認為將從經濟復甦中受益的行業(例如工業)。

− 技術面也很正向;近期利率上升可能進一步支撐需求,而我們預計新發行的債券發行量將在年底前減少。

− 評價位於歷史低檔水準,反映了我們的基本面和技術面觀點。

• 市場波動,尤其是在聯準會縮減資產購買規模的情況下

− 我們將繼續尋找機會重新定位我們的策略。

• 市場風險包括聯準會貨幣政策、通膨持續走高以及供應鏈問題對企業利潤產生負面影響

 
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