【美國優質債】2021年9月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國股市和公債市場9月份下跌,市場反應投資人對於通膨升溫、恆大債務危機的潛在蔓延以及華盛頓即將到來的債務上限擔憂,然而商品市場反彈,企業信用利差收斂。

隨著美國公債的下跌,大部分變動發生在本月的最後幾天;殖利率曲線中,2年期殖利率上升8個基點至0.28%,10年期殖利率上升22個基點至1.52%,30年期殖利率上升16個基點至2.08%。

與8月份的利差走勢類似,9月份投資級債利差波動較大;市場大量新發行的債券,超出市場預期。

彭博美國公司債指數利差9月份收斂2個基點至80個基點,年初至今收斂12個基點,超額報酬20個基點,年初至今超額報酬174個基點。

由於美國公債的拋售, 美國公司債指數 9 月份的下跌1.07%;年初至今的下跌1.30%。

大多數行業9月份上漲,其中能源(69個基點)領漲;主權債8月份表現顯著優於大盤,9月份則低於大盤(95個基點);年初至今,能源(432個基點)、地方政府(406個基點)和金融債(401個基點)領先,而主權債(-87個基點)、超主權國家(27個基點)和機構(49個基點)則落後,顯示公司債券表現優於政府債。

投資級公司在9月份發行了1,840億美元的債券,是今年第三高的月份,年初至今的發行量達到近1.4兆美元,鑑於疫情和經濟停擺導致2020年的發行量創紀錄,較去年下降26%,但與其他年份相比仍高(與 2019 年相比成長 27%)。

投資級債市場9月繼續流入(70億美元),使2021年的流入量達到 1,020億美元。

基金總覽:

9月份,基金在電力和電信服務中的選債表現最佳,分別增加了 2個基點和1個基點。

相反地,基金對主權債的配置降低績效2個基點。此外,加碼遊戲產業也影響績效表現2個基點。

年初至今,該基金的選債及加碼航空運輸和天然氣增加績效,各貢獻9個基點。基金加碼銀行業則影響績效7個基點。此外,加碼博弈產業也影響基金表現3個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們認為產業輪動和選債仍然重要

− 基本面持續改善;我們專注於獲得我們認為將從經濟復甦中受益的行業(例如工業)。

− 技術面也很正向;近期利率上升可能進一步支撐需求,而我們預計新發行的債券發行量將在年底前減少。

− 評價位於歷史低檔水準,反映了我們的基本面和技術面觀點。

• 市場波動,尤其是在聯準會縮減資產購買規模的情況下

− 我們將繼續尋找機會重新定位我們的策略。

• 市場風險包括聯準會貨幣政策、通膨持續走高以及供應鏈問題對企業利潤產生負面影響

 
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