【美國優質債】2021年8月基金評論

市場總覽:

我們認為美國聯準會在即將到來的縮減購債上,將與市場投資人充分溝通。

8月份美國長天期公債殖利率下降速度減緩,10年期公債殖利率在1.20-1.35%的區間內盤整;月底上升6個基點至1.30%。

8月份美國投資級債利差先擴大後收斂,整個月基本持平;然而,彭博巴克萊美國債券指數8月份利差擴大1個基點至82個基點,年初至今收斂10個基點。

彭博巴克萊美國債券指數8月下跌0.24%,主要受到本月公債利率小幅上升影響;年初至今下跌0.23%。

8月主權債超額報酬122 bps,領先其他資產,其次為地方政府債和銀行債(皆為9 bps);電力(-27 bps)、天然氣(-22 bps)、大眾運輸(-18 bps)表現落後。年初至今,則由地方政府債(382 bps)、能源(361 bps)、和金融機構(353 bps)領先;主權債(7 bps)、超主權債(31 bps)及機構(44 bps)則表現落後。

投資級債8月份新發行880億美元,為今年度發行量最少的月份;年初至今發行量為1.17兆美元,由於2020年受疫情和經濟活動封鎖使發行量創新高,去年基期較高,今年至今發行量下降28%,但是與其他年份相比,發行量仍高(較2019年增加34%)。

投資級債8月淨流入50億美元,年初至今共流入980億美元。

基金總覽:

8月份,本基金在主權債的選債帶來最大貢獻(2個基點),而減碼有線及衛星電視也貢獻2個基點。反之,金屬及礦產開採則影響表現(1個基點)。

年初至今,基金在航空運輸和天然氣配送的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻了10個基點和9個基點。反之,基金加碼銀行和政府擔保債拖累表現,分別影響6個基點和2個基點。

未來展望:

•美國投資級債評價吸引力較先前低

−由於利差位於歷史上的較低水準,產業和債券選擇是現階段最重要的。

−強勁的經濟環境及貨幣寬鬆政策,使市場容易受到負面消息的影響,我們將繼續尋找機會。

• 企業槓桿仍高,但市場投資人跟隨聯準會的政策

−基本面持續支撐總體市場,由於經濟數據和公司營收數據亮眼,我們預期經濟將持續改善。

−然而,投資級公司槓桿仍高,且可能會傾向保障股東報酬(股票買回、股利等等)而非減少債務。

−高流動性一直是利差收斂的一大主因,但經濟復甦和通膨可能在長時間內保持較高的水準,可能導致美國聯準會收回寬鬆政策。

 
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