【美國優質債】2021年7月基金評論

市場總覽:

儘管基本面良好且寬鬆貨幣政策持續,然而7月份投資級債利差擴大,小型股遭到拋售,而原油和高收益債波動較小。

美國短天期公債殖利率下降較少,而長天期殖利率下降幅度較大(2年期下降6個基點至0.19% ,10年期下降21個基點至1.24%),為自2020年3月以來最大跌幅。

7月美國投資級債利差擴大,然而,由於長期利率下降,報酬率連續第四個月下跌。

彭博巴克萊美國債券7月份利差擴大4個基點至81個基點,年初至今收斂11個基點。7月份上漲1.30%,推升年初至今上漲0.01%。

相較美國公債,7 月份各產業的超額報酬不一,其中不動產投資信託 ( REITS ) 表現最好(16 bps),主權債(-149 bps)則表現較差。

相較美國公債,年初至今各產業表現皆領先,能源債(374bps)、地方政府債(372 bps)領先,而主權債(-113 bps)及超主權債(26 bps)則表現落後。

投投資級債7月份新發行1,010億美元,年初至今發行量為1.08兆美元,由於2020年受疫情和經濟活動封鎖使發行量創新高,去年基期較高,今年至今發行量下降26%,但是與其他年份相比,發行量仍高(較2019年增加38%)。

投資級債7月淨流入20億美元,年初至今共流入940億美元。

基金總覽:

7月份,基金在壽險和經紀業務的選債帶來最大貢獻,分別貢獻1個基點。反之,基金在外國主權債以及廣告產業的曝險拖累表現,分別影響2個基點和1個基點。

年初至今,基金在天然氣配送和航空運輸的選債貢獻最大,分別貢獻了9個基點。反之,基金加碼銀行和政府擔保債券拖累表現,分別影響7個基點和2個基點。

未來展望:

•美國投資級債評價吸引力較先前低

−由於利差位於歷史上的較低水準,產業和債券選擇是現階段最重要的。

−強勁的經濟環境及貨幣寬鬆政策,使市場容易受到負面消息的影響,我們將繼續尋找機會。

• 企業槓桿仍高,但市場投資人跟隨聯準會的腳步投資

−基本面持續支撐總體市場,由於經濟數據和公司營收數據亮眼,我們預期經濟將持續改善。

−然而,投資級公司槓桿仍高,且可能會傾向保障股東報酬(股票買回、股利等等)而非減少債務。

−高流動性一直是利差收斂的一大主因,但經濟復甦和通膨可能在長時間內保持較高的水準,可能導致美國聯準會收回寬鬆政策。

• 投資級債供需均衡

−投資級債的需求已經跟上了供給的增加,且我們預計 2021 年第三季發行量將減少。

 
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