摘要
美國科技股,成功搶得一波大反彈行情!受惠於人工智慧題材發酵、企業財報優於預期,及美債上限法案過關等利多,美股今年走勢翻多,成為今年耀眼的股市之一。其中,標普 500 資訊科技指數今年來至 5 月底漲幅超過三成,表現優於標普 500 指數與其他產業指數,科技股成為引領美股反彈的領頭羊。
超大型科技股浴火重生
根據高盛統計,超大型科技公司 2023 年依市值計算的報酬表現上看 29%,優於 S&P 500 指數平均的 6%。瀚亞美國高科技基金經理人林元平表示,超大型科技股經歷浴火重生,基本面前景的改變,引發相關股票明顯反彈,加上第一季超大型科技股業績普遍優於預期,銷售和獲利率均超過市場共識,並促使每股收益上調,持續看好美國大型科技股表現。
林元平表示,受惠於生成式人工智慧的帶動,超大型科技公司未來三年的營收成長前景可望擴大與標普 500 指數平均值的差異,換言之,科技族群將拉大與其他族群的差距,後市行情也值得期待,建議投資人可開始布局美國科技題材基金,掌握中長期的科技趨勢。
圖:超大型科技公司營收增長與 S&P 500 指數平均值
資料來源:高盛,2023/5/5
AI浪潮帶動大型科技股前景
新興科技應用問世,人工智慧已成為市場矚目焦點,林元平預估,目前生成式人工智慧仍處早期開發階段,預估未來在基礎建設、軟體等領域的多項應用還具極大的發展空間。 預期雲端業者也將加速硬體投資,以迎接人工智慧應用帶來的需求量,若全球主要雲端服務商資本支出以 10% 至 15% 的複合年均成長率,至 2027 年數據中心的科技基礎建設支出有望達 2,500 億美元。
儘管全球股市今年仍圍繞著諸多不確定性,但人工智慧發展勢在必行,半導體、雲端服務等題材後市相對看好,惟當期產業庫存仍處消化調整週期,靜待調整完畢後,整體晶片需求將有望大幅提升,預估下半年的復甦力道將有所提升。
看好美國高科技反彈力 直球布局瀚亞
在長期成長趨勢下,建議投資人布局以美國科技為題的主動型基金,藉由專業投資團隊的主動出擊,為投資人在多空交雜的環境當中,達到攻守兼備的效果,同時,也能長期參與新興科技題材所帶來的商機。
瀚亞美國高科技基金為國內少數投信發行、以美國科技股為主的境內基金,適合國人直接持有新台幣投資。截至 2023 年 4 月止,投資組合中的半導體產品及設備產業持股約 47%,其次為軟體、資訊技術服務類股,比重分別為 15.68%、10.04%。
前十大持股涵蓋 NVIDIA、AMD、ASML、ON SEMI 等關鍵半導體族群,亦有 APPLE、Microsoft 等硬軟體科技股大廠,另持有特斯拉等電動車族群。中長期來看,目前美國科技股股票評價具備絕佳吸引力,值得投資人逢低進場佈局,或是中長期定期定額投資,優選瀚亞美國高科技基金。
表:瀚亞美國高科技基金績效(%)
資料來源:CMoney,分類為投信投顧公會-跨國股票-美國型,統計至 2023/5/31,報酬率 %。*為基金主級別及四分位排名
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