摘要
美國總統川普上任不斷頒布新命令，其中關稅政策成為市場密切關注焦點，而對於台灣生產晶片課稅、中國制裁等，市場擔心為全球經濟與科技股帶來衝擊，加上中國DeepSeek的橫空出世，為AI科技領域帶來震撼，使得相關股票近期表現相對震盪。
瀚亞投資認為，美國後續若針對台灣所生產晶片或電子產品課徵關稅，乍看之下對整體電子產業影響大；因台灣多數出口為完整機台，較不易單獨課到晶片，若針對高階製程晶片，主要出口至美國生產，主要關稅影響最終仍將反映在終端客戶上，故實質影響較有限。
歷史經驗 目前是買進科技股好時機
目前全球仍在降息軌道上，環顧全球成熟國家，70%的軟著陸降息週期下，央行都不會一次降息到位，大部分降息週期長達一年以上，且近半數暫停降息超過2次，預料降息階段更有利於科技股表現。
在AI浪潮及降息的雙重推升下，美股七巨頭企業2025年可望大幅擴大資本支出，迎接未來不可限量的應用發展。從59家硬體廠CIO首席資訊長調查顯示，大部分認為2025年電腦、電腦週邊、儲存和伺服器的成長將加速。硬體成長加速原因：更新老舊設備、滿足業務增加需求、資料中心更新需求、資料處理/保存需求。
預料平台層及終端應用層的AI 業績增長在2025 年開始加速，加上需憑藉大語言模型以發展自身軟體的軟體公司可能受惠於成本的走降，可望進一步推升相關個股的近期表現。
AI業績長線有看頭 逢回布局
科技股經歷多頭行情，市場擔心評價過高，但實際上考量AI市場的長期成長性，未來獲利能力仍不容小覷。以2026年平均預估本益比來看，七大科技巨頭(不含特斯拉)約為24倍，平均預估獲利增長率為17%。近期科技股評價因DeepSeek R1模型而大幅修正，但持續抱持正向的看法，建議投資人可以逢回檔、定期定額加速布局。
進擊科技股 瀚亞境內外基金
瀚亞投資境內、境外基金有多檔【AI科技相關】基金，布局涵蓋全球、美國及台灣高科技股票為主，緊扣人工智慧供應鏈、應用題材等主流趨勢，是投資人長線布局科技趨勢的好選擇！
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