機會與風險在哪?最新台股展望看過來

新冠肺炎本土疫情自今年第二季以來對台灣帶來不小衝擊,但台股在許多強勢族群帶動下,仍維持多頭格局。面對未知挑戰,台股的機會與風險何在?後續將是反彈行情,還是持續牛市?帶您看瀚亞台股研究團隊最新觀察。

瀚亞台股研究團隊提供最新看法,雖然第二季台股創新高後回檔,但目前大盤指數位階相對合理,整理後有效改善籌碼面,電子族群投資價值重新浮現;而傳產和金融股也接棒演出,台股牛市可望延續。

三大機會點 助台股健康輪動

樂觀看待台股三大機會點,包括:(1)全球逐步施打疫苗後,經濟活動陸續步上正軌;(2)第三季企業訂單能見度仍相當高,企業獲利、GDP仍有機會上修;(3)科技、傳產/金融族群輪流接棒,籌碼面改善,牛市表現更健康。

至於市場是否過熱,或有哪些風險,建議可留意Fed利率政策走向;至於台灣總體經濟則可參考景氣對策燈號,目前已連續三個月亮起紅燈,顯示國內景氣仍熱絡,但目前受疫情干擾,景氣紅燈結束時,則可視為大盤高點的重要指標。

需求帶動 電金傳產各具亮點

台股受惠於各方需求帶動,電子、金融、傳產各有亮點,傳產、大宗原物料等景氣循環產業,將受惠於景氣復甦所帶動的需求,鋼鐵、海運等則受益於美中基礎建設即碳排放題材;金融、紡織則有歐美後疫情的消費需求推升收益率,電子則優先看好半導體相關供應鏈,特別是晶圓代工、驅動IC、5G晶片、ABF等題材。

鋼鐵股因中國控制碳排放、美國基礎建設等政策變革,帶動產業獲利與評價提升。目前鐵礦砂價格持續創歷史高價,而中國大陸積極推動碳中和而減少粗鋼產量,可能自原本的鋼鐵淨出口國轉為淨進口國,帶動國際鋼鐵需求。

◆航運股今明兩年整體航運市場呈現需求大於供給。特別是受到新冠肺炎疫情影響,全球各地塞港問題嚴重,在貨櫃與船員短缺狀況下,報價與廠商獲利將持續上調。

◆半導體供應鏈中美關係不確定性加上疫情未平息,半導體代工客戶將維持高庫存;晶圓代工(Foundry)未來數年成長性仍將維持優於半導體,相關設備商與封測廠均能受惠。

基金這樣挑瀚亞投信五檔台股基金,包括瀚亞高科技、瀚亞理財通、瀚亞菁華、瀚亞外銷、瀚亞中小,提供投資人多元布局選擇。

股債雙重配-瀚亞理財通基金

◆投資組合採取動態平衡投資於股票與債券,股票部位比重半年平均介於30%至70%間。

◆持股特色:主要持股為傳產類股,占持股比重的50%以上。

◆績效抓住市場脈動,短線市場震盪狀況下表現非常突出。

◆成立時間久、歷經完整景氣循環與利多空,股債平衡配置,可彈性操作防禦與進攻部位,低點即買點,適合長期扣款、分散單一押注股市的風險。瀚亞理財通基金績效

資料來源:Lipper,2021/5/31。同類型分類採用投信投顧公會-國內股債平衡型。

聚焦科技股-瀚亞高科技基金

◆投資組合60%以上投資於通訊、資訊、消費性電子、半導體與航太資源等科技股。

◆同類型基金當中,各期間績效優異,排名均在前1/2,短中長期表現亮眼。瀚亞高科技基金績效

資料來源:Lipper,2021/5/31。同類型分類採用投信投顧公會-國內股票-科技型。

緊抓優質股-瀚亞外銷、菁華基金

◆瀚亞外銷基金投資組合以外銷為導向(銷售占30%以上)的上市櫃股票。

◆瀚亞菁華基金成立歷史悠久,著眼財務健全且營運穩定的優質個股,積極操作。瀚亞外銷、菁華基金績效

資料來源:Lipper,2021/5/31。同類型分類採用投信投顧公會-國內股票-一般型。

 
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