摘要
隨著升息循環即將接近尾聲,第四季投資怎麼做?瀚亞投信發布第四季展望,看好整體經濟走勢相對樂觀的 Risk on,預料資金將持續湧入印度、日本及台股等,配置股票不可少;而為因應漲多後波動,亦建議納入投資等級債部位,趁殖利率高點時進場,收穫債息與未來資本利得,同時增加投資組合防禦力。
瀚亞投信投資長林如惠表示,市場對於美國基本面軟著陸的共識度高,GDP 近期已持續被上修,Q4 可望維持溫和成長的步調。而全球成長與政策利率漸趨明朗,投資人接下來則要關注四個焦點:全球成長、通膨走勢、利率政策及中國地產。
操作策略方面,過去超低利率的環境很難再現,投資股市更為重要,看好印度、日本、台股及美股,股市逢回可勇於進場;而面對風險性資產評價偏高,第四季建議以股債平衡優先,債券可聚焦投資等級債部位。
股市四大熱點 Q4漲勢可望續航
● 美股:總經數據顯示景氣仍具韌性,S&P 500 指數獲利年增率自第二季觸底,將反彈向上,2024 年企業獲利預期將翻正;AI 仍是長線投資主軸,相關概念股可望追隨營收帶動股價表現。
● 日本:央行保持寬鬆貨幣政策,外資流入持續,入秋後漲勢可期。三大利多包括中國旅日觀光效益可望帶動消費增長;日本交易所財務重整射出新三箭,關注企業獲利、提出加強股票回購及改善企業體質等計畫;政府政策鼓勵儲蓄轉向股市投資。
● 印度:各項經濟數據持續強勁,政經情勢穩定,總理大選將在 2024 年登場,相關的政策利多、經濟走勢都將牽動印度股市看俏。
● 巴西:通膨展望改善的背景下,降息態勢已確立,一旦進入降息循環,巴西股市往往漲多跌少,可往展開重新評價行情。
內外優勢助攻 台股第四季三大利多
第四季受到外部企業獲利上修、內有產業復甦與類股主流題材,三大利多將助攻台股表現:
一、美國通膨數據趨緩、近升息尾聲,企業獲利上修將對股市帶來正面效果。
二、產業庫存已降至合理水準,靜待年底需求復甦,有望帶動台廠供應鏈訂單。
三、AI 股已成市場主旋律,隨著需求大幅成長,台灣科技廠長線具成長動能。
台股第四季走勢可能呈現先蹲後跳,至年底 AI 伺服器出貨可望大幅成長,加上年終銷售旺季來到,將可帶動回補庫存效應,並使台灣出口產業恢復成長動能,逢低布局主流產業,看好 ASIC(特殊應用晶片)、散熱產業、PCB、CCL、軍工及航太產業在第四季表現。
升息進入尾聲 首選投資級債
● 投資等級債:隨著升息循環進入尾聲,利率風險壓力減輕,第四季具備三大買進優勢:基本面健康、信評展望正向、債券價格仍在歷史低點吸引資金布局。
● 非投等資級債:經利率高原期延長,但美債殖利率上檔有限、負向影響降低,非投資等級債違約率在可控範圍內,建議錯過 2022 利率高點者,可以把握今年第四季時機,建議以 6 個月以上累積收益為主。
2023 年第四季精選基金清單
資料來源 : 瀚亞投信
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