【收益優化】2021年3月基金評論

市場現況:

本月風險性資產普遍表現優異,主要由於投資人因疫苗推出而預期未來經濟成長強勁,使人們增加對經濟復甦的預期,引發市場對通膨上升以及因此升息的擔憂。本月風險性資產如歐洲股票和高收益債上漲;而由於風險偏好的增加,傳統避險資產如黃金和美國公債等則遭到拋售。

債券市場除少數例外,本月表現平淡。投資人擔心通膨上升,故持續拋售政府公債,因此對商品及服務的需求成長。美國公債報酬下跌1.3%,英國公債與德國公債報酬皆為0.0%。

對比於固定收益領域中二月的變動,公司債市也有不良影響,公司債的存續時間因主要政府公債的拋售而被拖累。例如,英國優質公司債的總報酬下降了0.3%,美國公司債券更下跌了1.4%,而歐洲公司債則逆勢而上,月終微幅上漲0.2%。風險較高的高收益公司債表現更好,美國高收益債(+0.2%)和泛歐洲市場(+0.5%)上有所成長。

貨幣方面,美元兌英鎊上漲了1.1%,對歐元匯率上漲了2.9%,這是因為投資人認為未來一段時間經濟成長強勁,美國的利率將會上升。對於新興市場債券而言,美元走強和美國公債殖利率上升通常是個壞消息,而事實證明3月份也是如此。本月新興市場當地貨幣主權債的總報酬下跌了3.1%,而強勢貨幣債的報酬下跌了1.0%。本季,這些損失分別升至6.7%和4.5%。

不管相對或絕對而言,本月基金表現強勁。儘管由於投資人對通膨和潛在利率上升的預期,政府公債殖利率面臨新的壓力,但我們有限的存續期間部位。公司債和股票部位有良好的表現。在前者中,我們持有的美元投資級債利差收斂帶動績效,而在股票中,我們的一些景氣循環股票表現良好。

部位調整:

本月投資組合的重點在於公司債與存續期間。我們將部分美元投資級債部位轉成歐元投資級債部位。當政府公債殖利率因經濟前景看好而上升時,利差逐漸收斂,這是我們近期所經歷的,但美國的情況好很多,相比之下歐洲的經濟前景仍有成長空間,因此,歐洲公司近期表現有所落後,故我們認為歐洲公司有較大的上漲空間。

而我們對利率風險(存續期間)的看法,因為美國公債殖利率三月份持續上升,而德國公債變動不大,我們將部分存續期間部位由歐元資產轉為美元資產。執是之故,二月以來存續期間小幅上升(由2.8年增加至3.0年),但基於對未來前景看好及通膨可能拉高殖利率,我們仍對基金內的利率風險非常謹慎。

本基金對於高收益債的配置仍然低於基準指標(目前佔13-14%,而中性配置為33.3%),我們如此謹慎佈局的原因在於我們認為估值過於昂貴,且若經濟下滑,誤差也很小。儘管如此,我們一直在尋找我們認為在該領域具有吸引力的機會,因此本月我們買進了一些BB評級的公司,這些公司的估值相對於基本面而言看起來不錯。

在股票方面,整體配置保持在4.5%左右。在本月我們減少或賣出表現良好的部位,如Daimler, BMW and Adecco。另一方面,我們買進了一些看起來仍較便宜的公司,如諾華(Novartis)和葛蘭素史克(GSK)。整體而言,我們的股票部位主要仍投資於歐洲和英國的公司,並多投資於景氣循環類股。

最後,儘管在政府公債方面交易有限,三月份我們仍在初級市場買入了祕魯和馬其頓。這次的交易讓我們新興市場的部位增加至1.7%,而在我們買入新興市場公司債時大約上升至2.6%。補充說明這一點:在COVID危機爆發之前,我們使用衍生性商品,使新興市場的部位為-4%。

 
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