【M&G Insight】2022年操作 以靈活債券策略對抗通膨

2021年全球經濟因新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情大流行,所導致封城、經濟活動停擺等破壞性影響,也從中展開強勁復甦。各國政府和中央銀行祭出果斷且必要的政策行動,將利率維持在極低,甚至趨近零的水平,藉以支撐消費支出和信心。

不過,全球經濟連到需要承受的後果,就是通膨攀升,驅動因素包括:石油、天然氣等大宗商品需求轉強,導致能源價格走揚、供應鏈遭遇瓶頸,以及今年以來經濟逐步解封,使消費品、服務相關支出普遍增加。許多人正在重新審視去年「喊卡」的支出計畫(例如旅遊、入住高級飯店、購買房地產等)。在此同時,由聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)發布的經濟預測資料可得知,美國2021年通膨率預計會來到4.2%,2021、2022年估將放緩至2.2%左右。

在經濟成長回升、利率維持寬鬆的情況下,勞動市場遂成為總體經濟當中,值得好好檢視的領域。某些經濟體已接近充分就業狀態,而所謂的離職率(指人們自願性地離職),也來到歷史新高。高度活躍的勞動市場,可能會導致更高的薪資水平,以及更持久的通膨。

債券存續期間與信貸

儘管通膨率攀升,央行依舊維持利率趨近於零的寬鬆狀態。事實上,另一種看待低利貨幣政策整體影響的方式,就是所謂的「影子利率」(shadow rate)。在美國經濟學家費雪‧布萊克提出的模型中,「影子利率」是指低於零的名目短期利率。由經濟學家吳菁與夏凡所估算的「影子聯邦基金利率」可看出,今年以來,美國的影子利率一直都是負值,這意味著,央行所採取的政策,比名目利率所顯示的更為寬鬆。

在這種環境下,基金經理人伍諾德(Richard Woolnough)認為,公司債市場依舊能獲得良好支撐。貨幣政策需要一個正的實質利率,如果通膨率為2%,那麼政策利率至少要與之相等。但,就當前狀況而言,顯然不會發生,因為央行仍試圖刺激經濟。目前的核心通膨率約為4%,短期利率則趨近於零。這意味著,要使實質利率和通膨率保持一致,還有很長一段路要走。看看目前接近-2%的「影子聯邦基金利率」,正是如此。只要央行落後於通膨率,信貸市場應可獲得良好支撐,因為這種環境可望使違約率,維持在低檔。

就操作策略而言,主要是從美元投資級公司債,轉向歐洲公司債,因為伍諾德(Richard Woolnough)發現,後者更具吸引力,並且把購買重心鎖定在銀行,它們提供了從高評級票據到高收益次級債等諸多機會。此外,銀行與經濟息息相關,在經濟改善時,往往都能表現良好。

從存續期間角度來看,伍諾德(Richard Woolnough)認為,貨幣政策和財政刺激的結合,可能會帶動更高的經濟成長和通膨率。此事將使政府公債承壓,尤其是長天期公債。此外,由於利率趨近於零,政府公債價格上漲空間有限,無法提供有利的風險報酬。

「再通膨」環境下的資產部位調整

如上所述,當我們對通膨和預期的利率變化,做出反應時,有助維持存續期間和信貸觀點的積極、靈活,進而產生回報,也可在未受約束的策略中,使用其他工具,在不同的固定收益資產類別(投資級債、政府公債、高收益債)之間移動,甚至投入股市(至多占總資產的20%)。過去幾個月,伍諾德(Richard Woolnough)看好受益於經濟改善的週期性產業,包括非必需消費品、能源,以及醫療保健等。

在試圖衡量未來一段時間通膨變化的同時,我們也買賣與通膨率掛鉤的債券。例如,2020年積極購買長天期美國抗通膨債券(TIPS),2021年更加關注日本和歐元區公債,並減持後者,因為歐元區的通膨率,出現意料之外的攀升,且預期將進一步走揚。

近期也針對英國通膨,建立了空頭部位。整體而言,認為通膨會維持在較高水平,但英國市場預期未來10年,通膨定價會高於4%,在英國零售價格指數(RPI)將有所調整的情況下,這個預期似乎過高,4%以上的通膨定價,會是個挑戰,有時,市場的預期,會偏離目標。

伍諾德(Richard Woolnough)對2021、2022年的經濟前景,抱持樂觀態度。但這種強勁的成長和就業數據,將導致通膨攀升,相信通膨率最終將高於過去習以為常的水平,而且會維持得更久。在此情況下,持有過多存續期間較長的債券,應保持警惕,因為政府公債價格,將因殖利率攀升而隨之惡化。

持續在歐洲、英國等市場以及金融產業領域,找尋具吸引力的投資機會,但對於被高估的公司債市場,持謹慎態度。如前所述,銀行就像反映經濟的一面鏡子,當經濟強勁時,銀行可獲得良好支撐;當經濟疲弱時,銀行將蒙受損失。目前正處於積極的總體經濟環境中,因此偏好持有銀行。

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