【M&G Insight】2021年,樂觀面對全新時代的開始

COVID-19持續延燒,包括疫苗研發、病毒變種等問題,同時間拜登當選美國新任領導人,改變美國政策方針,並重新關注氣候變遷議題,以上關鍵事件將為2021年帶來什麼影響?

M&G 四位投資專家:投資長/公共固定收益部投資長 Jim Leaviss、多重資產部基金經理人Maria Municchi、股票投資部基金經理人Randeep Somel與Alex Araujo,共同探討2021年的挑戰和機遇。

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Q:拜登雖勝選,但沒有引起所謂的「藍色浪潮」,新政府施政會不會因此在立法部門受到掣肘?

Randeep:美國大選塵埃落定,市場抱持正面看法。白宮、眾議院由民主黨掌握,參議院多數在共和黨手裡,共和黨扮演牽制角色,但拜登在國會歷練(大多時間在參議院)已有47年,也曾經排除兩黨岐見,順利讓法案通過,他應該了解跟共和黨合作的重要,有利於執政。

Q:最近全球共同推動氣候變遷運動,你的看法?

Maria:美國對氣候變遷的態度開始轉變了,這是拜登政見的核心,返回巴黎氣候協定,更是首要完成項目,美國將回到跟其他國家同樣的道路上,例如,歐洲國家已經將因應氣候變遷放到首位。美國社會面臨的諸多挑戰,老年化人口及環境與社會變遷,政策制定者的角色,在這樣環境下更顯重要。

新冠疫情凸顯公司經營必須更有效率與韌性,政府支出在可見未來應該還是會持續,但在花錢同時,有一個核心觀念必須貫徹,就是環境社會正義(environmental social justice)。不只是要推動改變,更是確保整體社會因此受益。

Randeep:拜登執政需要立法部門的支持,但其實,總統權力很大,可以跳過參議院進行很多決策。根據科學基礎進行決策,是拜登政府第一項改變白宮做事的重點。在前國務卿凱利(John Kerry)的領導下,白宮已經確定56個有關氣候政策的改革方案,都不需要經過國會通過。

至於中國,習近平在9月巴黎協定框架下,確定加大力道推行環境相關的政策。中國在2030年之前,碳排放就會到達高峰,之後逐漸下降,2060年將達到碳中和;同時在2035年停止核發純燃油汽車執照,讓中國最大的碳排放來源對環境的衝擊可以減輕。擴大投資乾淨能源,勢必無法避免,電池技術及再生燃料,例如:氫能源,都是在重點項目中。

Q:疫情控制後的大型財政刺激,會對基礎建設產生怎樣的改變?

Alex:基礎建設是經濟復甦的核心,美國同樣是如此,美國新政府願意把錢花在基礎建設,這大概是兩黨少唯一有共識的主題。在共和黨主導的參議院,多少會碰到阻礙。但大部份的共和黨參議員都想透過基礎建設,貢獻選區經濟,疫後若要重建,基礎建設必定是重要核心。有些建設是在地方政府層次,但有好幾項都是聯邦政府層級。在倡導綠色復甦的歐洲,就像Maria說的,許多對抗氣候變遷的方案都因此醞釀而生。

Q:各種資產的價值,在未來會如何轉變?

Jim:市場普遍認為零風險的美國公債,2020年殖利率一度低到0.5%,之後逐漸爬升。許多投資銀行預測,2021年殖利率會衝高,這我不同意。我認為通膨速度一定是緩慢、漸進的,疫情造成的高失業率及通貨緊縮,使得薪資趨動的通膨,在可見的未來,不太可能發生。但有些商品,因為疫情供給不足,確實讓價格越來越高。但總體來看,美國公債殖利率要大幅攀升的機率,仍然不高。希望這對其他商品市場是個好消息。

Q:基礎建設產業一直與公債殖利率起伏保持關係,低殖利率的影響對於基礎建設產業,會到什麼程度?

Alex:基礎建設方面,我們大多投資股票及一些成長性資產,隨著疫情趨緩,經濟活動一定變高,利率會慢慢回升。基礎建設產業的特性之一,就是會隨著景氣循環,產生現金,這些公司的殖利率也高於其他產業,不論景氣如何,就算利率降到0甚至負利率,基礎建設產業都會產生現金收入。我們依然認為,未來景氣會隨著經濟 活動增加、政府刺激政策,產生更多的現金。

Q:隨著疫苗問世,市場上對於價值型投資及成長型投資,好像開始有了轉變,你們怎麼看這兩種投資類型的榮枯?

Maria:過去十年來,這兩種投資方式的差距,好像一直擴大,但有一些結構性已經發生改變,差距已經逐漸在縮小。價值型公司對於市場的好消息,股價反應的狀況,似乎比之前明顯;不過,價值型投資類股2020年3月後回升比較落後。以銀行股為例,還有長路要走,但如果疫苗對疫情確實產生控制,我覺得這樣的類股或公司,獲利的力道就能回升,只要情況轉變,隨時可以起跑。

Q:不同區域的股市,會有不同的反應?驅動的力量是甚麼?

Randeep:因為疫情,生活已經大量數位化,這部分美國確實居主宰地位,價值型股票確實落後。就我們評估,成長型股票的漲勢已經超過預期。時間久一點,其他產業的股價就會跟上,雖然以現在來看有點難度。我們還是關注美國,但美股相較其他地區,價格高出不少。雖然不論疫情如何,高科技股應該還是會往上走,現在應該慢慢獲利了結。歐洲股票現在確實落後,但我們著眼的,是歐洲公司長期穩定的獲利能力,我們關注有全球布局的公司,也會將注意力放在有成長潛力的區域。

Q:投資人對2021年應該保持樂觀?

Jim:只要疫苗證明有效,在某一個程度上,2021年中可能回復到接近以前正常的生活,包括旅遊、貿易及就業。身為一個債券投資人,我關心的是:新冠疫情造成的經濟創傷會持續多久?勞動力能回到工作崗位上?或者,長期失業還是會對全球經濟發展造成負擔?這些問題的答案,會決定未來殖利率的走向及資產價值是否能順利回升。

總結來說,2021年將有更多樂觀事件發生,持續保持投資靈活性與風險分散,依舊可以為投資人帶來超額報酬。

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