日股漲勢何以維持?追「日」先看三大轉機

近期台灣飛日本航線陸續重啟,日本股市大行情已領先啟航!截至2022年7月底止,日經225指數今年來僅下跌3.4%,反觀S&P 500、歐洲等全球主要指數跌幅均超過一成。日股上半年漲勢如何維持,讓我們繼續往下看…

瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金研究團隊表示,包括日本企業獲利提升、股利成長以及股市的重新評價,如本益比或股價淨值比回升等優勢,將更有利於日股投資人,而日股相對於全球成熟市場是非常便宜,預期差距將逐步縮小。

此外,今年來受到俄烏戰爭,北韓核武及中國對東北亞安全的威脅,推升日本國防概念股今年以來逆勢上漲,而日圓貶值也為日本出口廠商的獲利帶來明顯貢獻。

日股投資三大轉機

一、日圓貶值趨勢

日圓過去1年大幅貶值,主要原因是日本央行堅持控制殖利率曲線,而日圓貶值對出口商來說是一大利多,例如汽車類股。就算日圓從當前的水準反彈,投資人也可進一步受惠於日圓升值優勢。

二、通縮變通膨

日本從過去40年的通縮轉進通膨循環,6月份核心CPI年增2.2%,增速遠低於許多西方國家。未來若進入正常化利率環境,對日本股市將是利多,將直接使金融股受惠,同時促使消費和投資正向循環。此外,目前日本家庭現金儲蓄水準較高,可能會開始尋找收益,進一步投資目前股利率高的股市。

三、內外政治情勢

近期投資人關注安倍晉三遇刺的消息,這並不會改變對日本的投資展望。反而上議院選舉中獲得壓倒性優勢,現任首相岸田文雄將能鞏固安倍的立場,並繼續執行改革的進程,支持企業獲利提升、薪資成長和勞動生產力提升,預期日企將能更有效率,為股票投資人帶來更好的回報。

研究團隊如何「擇日」選出好標的?

多元幣別與績效有目共睹

瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金短中長期各期間表現明顯優於同類型,適合投資人中長期佈局並且提供多元貨幣級別,可直接持有美元及日圓投資,或透過美元/南非幣/澳幣避險等,適度分散匯率風險。

表、基金績效表現
performance7
資料來源: Lipper,統計至2022/7/31,原幣計價。

操作策略動力推進

基金研究團隊擅長由下而上選股,從日本超過兩千檔上市股票中,量化篩選出股價被嚴重錯估的股票,找出每一檔個股投資價值,最後組建出僅30~50檔菁英股票,投資組合不受限於參考指數,目前基金前10大持股占比達48%。

產業配置來看,包括工業(國防)、景氣循環性消費(汽車)、金融等相關族群,今年以來對投組報酬貢獻度較高。隨著通膨率上升,日本央行未來若升息,將使金融股受惠;日元貶值對出口商來說是一大利多,汽車產業直接受惠;地緣政治風險升溫也推升國防概念股今年以來逆勢上漲。

圖、基金投資組合配置
pictureJP4
資料來源: 瀚亞投資,統計至2022/6/30。

抓住價值與成長新機會

研究團隊專注於股價被嚴重低估的公司,在過去12個月當中,價值股與成長股之間出現結構性的變化,受到全球利率回升,成長股大幅修正,價值股超車。意味著公用事業、原物料、製造業和銀行股現在更受市場青睞。或許,這將是近幾年抓住價值股與成長股投資機會的絕佳標的。

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