日股投資 可能讓你很意外的Point

美國連續升息周期下,美元指數走強,對不少貨幣帶來貶值壓力,日圓今年以來至5/25貶值幅度約一成。素有「日圓先生」之稱的榊原英資預期,今年底日圓兌美元將貶至140到150日元水準。

日幣貶值趨勢的吸引力,不只炒熱國人對赴日觀光旅遊的高度期待,還有令人想不到的點,例如日股投資機會,以下為瀚亞投資團隊對於日本股市投資的分析。

日幣貶值,通常會帶動日股走強

從歷史經驗來看,美國正式啟動減債後,美元指數持續走揚,同時日圓也面臨貶值趨勢;然而,在全球股市當中,日股受益於貨幣貶值效應最大,日圓貶值更將帶動日股走強。以過去2013-2014年縮減購債期間來看,日股表現更優於全球股市。

當成長股飆漲按下暫停鍵,輪到日本價值股showtime了

當國際逐步透過升息及縮表來收回市場資金之際,享受多頭行情多年的成長股,今年也出現劇烈的修正。瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金研究團隊觀察發現,自2021年開始資金輪動開始回到價值股,不過,日本價值股評價卻仍處於過去20年平均以下,目前股價淨值比約0.9倍,低於長期平均,從評價面來看,相當具吸引力,有許多遭到錯估的價值股投資機會,等待被挖掘。

日企獲利實力不容小覷,但股票估值卻被低估

日本企業獲利強勁、資產負債表顯著改善,也成為日股強力支撐。瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金研究團隊表示,日本企業淨利率穩健上升,目前日企盈餘殖利率約11.5倍,在各區域股市中名列前茅,優於歐洲、亞洲不含日本、全球及美國等,但是股價淨值比卻只有1.4倍,居於末位,顯示市場評價未能夠充分反映。

另外,許多數據也顯示日本企業體質健全,包括現金充裕、發放股利、股票回購等年年上升,Topix日本企業持有現金(Cash Rich)比重達58%,高於MSCI亞洲(排除日本)、中國、美國、英國及歐洲;此外,日企股息發放及股份回購也紛紛來到新高。日本企業盈利上修幅度顯著,且基本面有所改善,自然也有利於股價表現。

圖、相較全球其他市場,日本的估值具吸引力
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資料來源︰瀚亞投資、IBES MSCI指數、Refinitiv Datastream,截至2022年2月28日。所用指數:MSCI日本指數、MSCI歐洲指數、MSCI所有國家亞太(排除日本)指數、MSCI新興市場拉丁美洲指數、MSCI所有國家世界指數、MSCI美國指數。 

日幣貶值,不只旅遊令人心動,投資基金也適合

日圓匯率貶值趨勢仍將持續,除了可作為未來赴日旅遊觀光用途,不妨可以多關注日本股票基金的投資機會。

瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金是瀚亞投資旗下境外基金經核備在台灣銷售,投資策略採取由下而上、集中持股的方式,伺機尋找被低估的標的,並且專注在公司價值;另外,基金投資風格則是大中小型股通吃,跳脫基準指數的框架,努力創造超額報酬,保持靈活操作的優勢。由於日股投資易受到日圓波動所影響,該檔基金擁有多元貨幣級別,可直接持有美元及日圓投資,或透過美元/南非幣/澳幣避險等,適度分散匯率風險。

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