摘要
日本企業體質、財政變革到總體經濟等近年正面消息連連,使得日本股市明顯翻轉過去低迷態勢,日經225指數自2023、2024年連續出現上漲,漲幅更分別達28%、19%。今年在川普2.0政策利刃連出,加上面臨利率正常化與日圓走勢等變數挑戰,投資日本股市是否還有成長空間?
瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金經理團隊表示,日本經濟走向正面循環,2025基本面帶動成長,多元消費即將開啟動能,亦有退休金機構等中長線資金流入,看好日本股市成長還有空間可期。
外資、退休金機構 對日股信心上升
股神巴菲特每年的投資動向備受金融市場矚目,其所執掌的波克夏(Berkshire Hathaway)公司2025年2月發布年度股東信中,揭露看好且續抱日股的意願。不僅如此,巴菲特效應也帶動新一波日本投資熱潮,外資私募巨擘也陸續瞄準日本,例如2024年亞馬遜150億美元、微軟29億美元和谷歌10億美元,都增強日本成為科技產業研究和創新中心的雄心。
瀚亞投資表示,波克夏公司繼2024年4月份發行超過¥ 2,600億日圓債後,10月份再發¥ 2,800億日圓債,瞄準財務重整有成的金融與保險產業;不僅證明投資者對波克夏的信心,也反映對日本股市上漲的預期。
隨著日本利率及經濟立場能見度提升,外資法人資金更願意長期持有日股。包括日本退休金機構有數十兆日圓預期進場加碼、日本企業股票回購達到歷史新高、散戶開戶數目與交易量也大增,上述現象皆有助於支撐日本股市表現。
旅遊觀光熱潮擋不住
2025年4 ~10月,日本即將舉辦EXPO大阪世界博覽會,預計將有超過150個國家、2800萬人次湧入日本,不只科技股,包括銀行/信用卡、服務業、交通運輸、旅遊休閒、通訊等食衣住行產業,預期將與露均霑。以世博會新建場地為例,參與公司產業包括:化學、木材、建造、運輸物流、電氣、工業等領域受惠。
除此之外,日本旅遊熱度不斷上升,也帶動在地多元消費、觀光等題材。日本政府預期,2030年每年入境遊客可望達6,000萬人次,消費金額也將高於疫情前,有利於內需消費產業及投資標的表現。
日幣反轉不用怕 多元幣別因應
整體而言,日本經濟基本面從內到外翻轉,日股2025年還有成長空間。隨著日股過去兩年明顯受到大型企業漲勢驅動,但預料隨著日本國內內需強勁,中小型企業更能受惠,透過專業經理團隊篩選出被低估的產業個股,更藉由主動投資,在中小型股中找到超額成長機會。
此外,儘管日圓短期受美元牽動,瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金提供日圓、美元等計價級別,亦有美元避險、南非幣避險、澳幣避險級別等多元幣別選擇;且投資策略對於日圓變動較不敏感,適合投資人全天候投資。
本基金各天期績效表現
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