摘要

 

10月9日印度儲備銀行(RBI)宣布維持利率不變,值得注意的是,RBI貨幣政策委員會本次將政策立場調整為「中性」,被市場認為是為降息做預備;而10月底將迎來印度重要節慶:排燈節,龐大消費商機可期。挾著經濟成長、降息行情與消費旺盛等題材,推薦投資人透過瀚亞印度基金長期掌握印度股市投資潛力。

8月到9月這段期間,印度陸續出現高頻指標出現放緩趨勢,如乘用車銷量、電力需求、商品及服務稅(GST)徵收和製造業採購經理指數(PMI)、及信貸增長等,引發市場對印度增長勢頭是否放緩的擔憂,而Sensex指數也自85,836歷史高點暫時回落。

通膨放緩 利率政策轉調

瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟認為,印度製造業採購經理人PMI指數自先前歷史高點溫和回落,Sensex指數自然也反映出企業銷售與獲利走勢放緩。

但值得關注的是,印度通膨率已連續兩個月低於RBI 4%的目標,8月份為3.65%,通膨放緩、經濟數據趨緩及企業獲利成長減速等原因,也讓印度央行開始改變利率政策態度。

10月RBI利率會議首次定調為中性,除了持續回收多餘流動性外,更強調要兼顧成長。根據預估,FY2025 印度GDP成長率仍可達到7.2%;CPI年增率則是約4.5%,預估明年第一季整體通膨可下滑至4%,符合央行長期穩定標準。正因如此,市場認為印度開始出現降息的討論,最快可能發生在2024年底至明年第一季。

把握短期修正時機加碼

印度股市自9月底以來明顯修正,處於高檔震盪。以MSCI印度指數為例,本益比相較於整體新興市場有所拉回,從經濟、企業獲利等面向來看,印度中期投資仍相當看好,短期則有評價修正、降息資金及消費旺季行情可期,提供良好的進場時機。

印度整體宏觀環境保持韌性,通膨趨於穩定,政府注重財政整頓,盧比匯率穩定等多重利多,看好印度是亞太區長期增長前景最佳的國家。建議選擇瀚亞印度基金布局,短期逢修正加碼,長期納入資產配置。

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