摘要
全球不少國家在 2024 年進入選舉年,尤其印度選舉行情更早就開跑,印度股市自去年 11 月以來頻創新高,成功站上 7 萬點。瀚亞印度基金研究團隊認為,選舉、降息、資金流將是激勵印度股市的多重利多,2024 極可能再上新高。
印度 GDP 向來是全球領頭羊,而股市市值更快速壯大,2023 年 11 月已經跨越 4 兆美元門檻,晉升為全球第五大。瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟認為,印度總理莫迪政府 2024 年大選前加大投資,強勁的擴張意味著印度繼續保持全球成長最快的主要經濟體地位,除選舉題材外,還有降息及資金兩大題材,投資人應持續定期定額持有印度股市部位。
一、選舉
印度執政黨 BJP 在幾個主要的省份下議院席次競選中勝出,市場認為總理大選結果不確定性降低,同時莫迪組成單一政黨政府可能性提高,施政與預算壓力解除,得以政經改革力道。
二、降息
2024 年美國有機會轉為降息,但對於新興市場來說,則可望更早進入降息循環。預料外資也將順勢回流新興市場,尤其是經濟成長居冠、企業獲利亮眼的印度股市。
三、資金
印度與中國向來是資金翹翹板效應,外資明顯轉進印度,加上內資強勢主導,內外資金行情一同流入印度可期。此外,印度市場在亞太區域基金或全球型基金配置權重偏低,隨著市值增長,全球主動型基金也可望增加印度配比,帶來新的資金潮。
印度股市頻創新高,評價自然也來到相對高檔。林庭樟指出,目前印度股票市值/GDP 比率約 120%,尚未達到 2007 年的巔峰值,仍屬於合理階段。研判下方有支撐,如有適時修正,極為良好的進場買點。此外,大型股走勢預料也將較佳,中小型股評價已太擴張,主要從市值角度來看,企業獲利/評價增長,未來將較偏好大型股表現。
標的推薦:瀚亞印度基金
• 基金 2006 年成立時間悠久,規模達新台幣 134.13 億(截至2023/12/31),為目前國內印度股票型基金規模最大。
• 經理人主動操作,與在地顧問 ICICIPru 合作,挖掘印度在地產業及個股機會。
• 提供新台幣、美元、人民幣級別選擇。
• 基金短中長期定期定額平均報酬亮眼,適合投資人長期配置。
資料來源:Lipper,截至 2023/12/31,原幣計價。定期定額統計時間為2018/12/31~2023/12/31,計算基準以 2018 年 12 月起開始扣款,每月底扣款一次 10,000 元新台幣。本資料為歷史資料模擬回測,不代表未來投資獲利之保證,在不同指數走勢、比重與期間之下,可能得到不同的結果。投資人因不同時間進場,將有不同之投資績效,過去之績效亦不代表未來績效之保證。
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