摘要

 

全球不少國家在 2024 年進入選舉年,尤其印度選舉行情更早就開跑,印度股市自去年 11 月以來頻創新高,成功站上 7 萬點。瀚亞印度基金研究團隊認為,選舉、降息、資金流將是激勵印度股市的多重利多,2024 極可能再上新高。

印度 GDP 向來是全球領頭羊,而股市市值更快速壯大,2023 年 11 月已經跨越 4 兆美元門檻,晉升為全球第五大。瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟認為,印度總理莫迪政府 2024 年大選前加大投資,強勁的擴張意味著印度繼續保持全球成長最快的主要經濟體地位,除選舉題材外,還有降息及資金兩大題材,投資人應持續定期定額持有印度股市部位。

一、選舉

印度執政黨 BJP 在幾個主要的省份下議院席次競選中勝出,市場認為總理大選結果不確定性降低,同時莫迪組成單一政黨政府可能性提高,施政與預算壓力解除,得以政經改革力道。

二、降息

2024 年美國有機會轉為降息,但對於新興市場來說,則可望更早進入降息循環。預料外資也將順勢回流新興市場,尤其是經濟成長居冠、企業獲利亮眼的印度股市。

三、資金

印度與中國向來是資金翹翹板效應,外資明顯轉進印度,加上內資強勢主導,內外資金行情一同流入印度可期。此外,印度市場在亞太區域基金或全球型基金配置權重偏低,隨著市值增長,全球主動型基金也可望增加印度配比,帶來新的資金潮。

印度股市頻創新高,評價自然也來到相對高檔。林庭樟指出,目前印度股票市值/GDP 比率約 120%,尚未達到 2007 年的巔峰值,仍屬於合理階段。研判下方有支撐,如有適時修正,極為良好的進場買點。此外,大型股走勢預料也將較佳,中小型股評價已太擴張,主要從市值角度來看,企業獲利/評價增長,未來將較偏好大型股表現。

標的推薦:瀚亞印度基金

•  基金 2006 年成立時間悠久,規模達新台幣 134.13 億(截至2023/12/31),為目前國內印度股票型基金規模最大。
•  經理人主動操作,與在地顧問 ICICIPru 合作,挖掘印度在地產業及個股機會。
•  提供新台幣、美元、人民幣級別選擇。
•  基金短中長期定期定額平均報酬亮眼,適合投資人長期配置。

標的推薦:瀚亞印度基金
資料來源:Lipper,截至 2023/12/31,原幣計價。定期定額統計時間為2018/12/31~2023/12/31,計算基準以 2018 年 12 月起開始扣款,每月底扣款一次 10,000 元新台幣。本資料為歷史資料模擬回測,不代表未來投資獲利之保證,在不同指數走勢、比重與期間之下,可能得到不同的結果。投資人因不同時間進場,將有不同之投資績效,過去之績效亦不代表未來績效之保證。

 

更多文章

了解更多
【Q3投資展望】基本面樂觀 股市重成長 買債顧收益

in insights

多元資產

【Q3投資展望】基本面樂觀 股市重成長 買債顧收益

2024/06

2024 上半年 AI 浪潮儼然成為全球金融市場催化劑,第三季處於股市創高、降息預期階段,將是利多可期或是風險將至?

【印度溫度計】經濟擁六大優勢 定期定額布局印度基金

in insights

股票

【印度溫度計】經濟擁六大優勢 定期定額布局印度基金

2024/06

印度具有優勢的人口紅利、人均所得也不斷提升、通膨受控、數位轉型、強勁的企業資產負債表,以及中央財政赤字鞏固等六大優...

AI大時代   鎖定瀚亞AI基金地圖

in insights

股票

AI大時代 鎖定瀚亞AI基金地圖

2024/06

輝達創辦人黃仁勳日前來台參加 2024 Computex 大展,不僅個人掀起「美食地圖」風潮,更因點名台灣的 AI...

市場快訊》莫迪贏得第三度任期 印度的成長願景未變

in insights

股票

市場快訊》莫迪贏得第三度任期 印度的成長願景未變

2024/06

印度在過往10多年來經濟達到空前強盛的地步,最新季度增長率8.2%、外匯儲備充足、PMI指數紛達多年新高、企業成速...

【收益對策】美國非投資級債券 總報酬So YUM

in insights

固定收益

【收益對策】美國非投資級債券 總報酬So YUM

2024/06

美國非投等債收益率維持近十年高檔,加上下檔違約損失可控,總報酬相當可觀。著眼於投資風險降低、違約率低及投資效率高、...

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.


The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).