【入息】2022年2月基金評論

市場現況:

俄羅斯軍隊在烏克蘭邊境的集結以及隨後的入侵導致投資者拋售風險資產。由於投資者試圖了解衝突的嚴重程度,以及其他國家對俄羅斯實施的製裁對全球經濟的影響,使各國股市都出現下跌。由於俄羅斯是主要的石油和天然氣供應國,供應的受限導致能源價格飆升,引發了人們對生活成本的擔憂。投資者已經開始擔心全球通膨上升的影響,特別是美國的通膨率已達7.5%,更導致投資人預期下一屆聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議將上調利率0.5%。英國央行已先行在2月再次提高了貸款利率,對利率提升的擔憂導致相關本月初債券和股市表現疲軟。之後在俄羅斯開始在烏克蘭採取軍事行動後,投資人轉向投資政府券公債等避險資產並推升公債表現,但仍難以彌平上半個月的損失。

俄烏衝突引發的經濟成長放緩也緩和了對升息和加速收緊貨幣政策的預期。

如此國際背景下,俄羅斯相關資產價格急劇下跌。俄羅斯股市下跌約三分之一,而俄羅斯盧布的暴跌也擴大了問題。其他鄰近國家股市也下跌,其中最接近衝突地區的國家,如瑞典和芬蘭以及歐洲-尤其是德國,因為擔憂俄羅斯的能源供應可能中斷使跌幅擴大。此外,歐洲銀行股因大多持有俄羅斯相關部位而表現落後。

另一方面,在石油和其他大宗商品價格上漲的推動下,拉丁美洲市場表現更好。中國也迎來小幅上漲,而富時 100 指數受到其高權重的能源股支撐。如前所述,本月政府公債表現疲軟,而公司債信用利差則擴大。

在外匯市場上,主要貨幣間的波動有限,儘管日元因避險情緒升溫使相對表現優於英鎊和歐元。新興市場貨幣中,俄羅斯盧布走貶,其他東歐國家貨幣也紛紛貶值,而巴西雷亞爾走強。

本基金於本月取得負報酬,主要是由於持有的歐美股票下跌。美國和葡萄牙的政府公債也拖累了績效。新興市場債券則表現相對平穩,其中巴西相關債券貢獻正報酬。

近期市場走勢表明投資者所關注的議題迅速轉移。就在幾週前,人們關注的是通貨膨脹以及升息是否加速,但現在投資人更關注俄烏衝突是否會導致長期投資環境的改變。

綜觀歷史,地緣政治事件諸如吞併克里米亞和入侵伊拉克,並沒有對投資環境產生長久的影響,股市仍然會復甦。但是,我們必須警惕這次可能會有所不同。

我們還必須考慮更廣泛的投資環境,俄烏衝突並非影響投資績效的唯一因素。我們認為,在衝突發生前,升息議題已於股市中反應,並導致市場大部分區塊表現低迷。我們認為目前並沒有發生太大變化,目前並未出現受市場低估的標的,但我們正密切關注市場低迷的狀況是否蔓延到我們認為不合理的區塊。

總結來說,我們希望能在有利於經濟和盈收成長的環境中獲得報酬,我們相透過持有股票部位,並依照市場環境調整將有助於策略的執行。目前我們將通過持有長天期美國公債來抵銷市場的衝擊。

部位調整:

我們在二月份交易較頻繁。本月初,我們通過增加和調整股票部位配置來減少現金比例。在取得正報酬後,我們減持了歐洲和美國的銀行部位,並買進我們認為低於評價的股票,其中包括美國的科技公司以及來自日本、法國和英國的公司。在同時,我們試圖通過增加美國長天期公債部位以在利率上升的環境中維持績效。當俄羅斯月底入侵烏克蘭時,避險資產的需求提升導緻美國公債殖利率下降,促使我們減少持股增加現金。我們認為,債券市場仍可能受到通膨上升和升息的挑戰。

 
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