【入息】2022年1月基金評論

市場現況:

2022年第一個月,許多股市大幅下跌。缺乏風險偏好的主要原因似乎是各國央行,尤其是美國聯準會,將很快提高利率以遏制通膨。

由於美國的消費者物價指數(CPI)超過7%,為40年來的最高水平,英國為5.4%,歐元區為 5.0%,現在看來很有可能會升息,一些分析師預測美國和英國將多次升息,儘管歐洲央行態度似乎更加謹慎。

除了利率上升,也預計央行也將撤回近年來對金融市場做出巨大貢獻的資產購買政策。地緣政治緊張局勢也打擊市場情緒,俄羅斯將軍隊移至烏克蘭邊境,如果俄羅斯入侵鄰國,美國與其他國家警告將對其實施嚴厲制裁。

在這樣的背景下,大多數資產價格下跌,以科技類股為主的納斯達克指數受到的打擊最為嚴重。科技企業的高股價評價使其容易受到更高利率的影響。其他下跌者包括中國,其經濟成長似乎正在放緩,以及英國中型股指數和日本股市。

另一方面,拉美新興市場受益於大宗商品價格上漲,一些市場出現良好反彈。

其他上漲的市場包括2021年特別疲軟的香港,以及英國的富時100指數,這得益於其銀行和能源產業的高比例以及科技公司的比重相對較低。

如前所述,資訊科技類股下跌,其次是非核心消費品和醫療保健類股。然而,由於擔心潛在地緣政治衝突導致供應緊張,石油和天然氣價格上漲,推動能源類股上漲。金融類股也表現較好,人們認為較高的利率會提高銀行的收益,尤其是在歐洲地區。

固定收益市場也受到利率上升前景的不利影響,成熟市場政府債券下跌,其中英國公債領跌。公司債市場進一步下跌,尤其是在英國和美國。然而,在拉丁美洲發行者的帶動下,新興市場債券價格小幅上漲。

外匯市場方面,聯準會更加鷹派的立場支撐了美元,美元相對英鎊和歐元上漲。幾種新興市場貨幣走強。

本基金下跌,其中最大的損失來自美國,儘管美元相對於歐元走強,但由於投資者開始警惕未來可能出現的多次升息,美國政府公債和股票均下跌,我們大量持有美國公債是最大的損失因素。在股票市場上, 儘管美國金融類股擁有收益,但我們持有的美國股票和資訊科技類股下跌。

除此之外,歐洲持股比例略有上升,歐洲銀行的可觀收益被英國和法國市場的下跌所抵消。儘管我們持有的公司債券略有減少,日本股票帶來了一些收益。

本基金最大的收益來自新興市場政府公債,巴西、智利和南非的債券價格上漲加上貨幣走強。因為我們的避險操作(至少70%的基金必須持有或兌換回歐元)使我們錯過了部分美元的走強而拖累績效。

近年來,我們看到市場發生了一些重大變化,其中最顯著的是新冠爆發以及政府對此的反應。在疫情之前,投資者似乎最擔心長期經濟停滯,當時人們擔心經濟成長非常低,而利率也不太可能上升。大規模的刺激措施帶來了更強勁的經濟成長和更高的通膨,但利率仍然很低。當利率可以迅速提高時,我們現在可能會進入一個潛在的政策變動環境。然而,因不確定性仍高,預測市場的未來走向將比以往更加困難。我們必須考慮聯準會在未來幾個月是否會更加鷹派,經濟成長是否會意外下降,或是上升,以及債券殖利率是否可能繼續上升,或者上升週期已結束。

部位調整:

鑑於我們希望消除疫情期間的不確定性,我們認為保持謹慎是明智的。我們認為沒有必要倉促地採取行動,特別是到目前為止,基金的操作策略使我們能夠在近期的波動中保持穩定。

因此,我們在1月份沒有對投資組合進行任何變動。我們認為現在售出我們在金融產業的部位還為時過早,且許多其他投資者也贊同我們的觀點,儘管金融類股表現強勁。與此同時,我們決定繼續持有長天期美國公債,且正在密切追蹤殖利率的變動,並保持對新興市場政府公債的正面看法。

我們希望本基金保持謹慎,但若潛在機會到來,將絕不會忽視它們。

 
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