【新興市場債券】2021年11月基金評論

市場現況:

11月對於新興債券市場來說是令人失望的月份。本月初受高通膨數據影響,市場表現疲軟,且隨著美國聯準會縮減恐慌、美元走強,及新冠變種病毒的出現,市場風險上升,月底時市場遭到拋售。

由於新興市場貨幣全面走弱,本地貨幣債券是市場中表現最差的部分。前緣市場和撒哈拉以南非洲國家也受到不確定性以及石油價格急劇下跌影響,此也打擊了石油出口國。

由於公司債平均信用評等較高,其更具彈性,但仍為負報酬。只有少數新興市場國家(主要是投資級債券發行人)在本月為正報酬。

在土耳其,市場對央行最近的降息反應強烈。該國通貨膨脹高達雙位數,此政策加上埃爾多安總統表示接受貨幣走貶的言論,導致土耳其里拉兌美元匯率下跌 26%。

新興債券市場房地產產業11月僅小幅下跌(-0.9%),但仍低於過去三個月7%,中國房地產危機爆發後,幾家發行人仍面臨巨大的財務壓力的環境。我們認為,此對市場其他產業沒有溢出效應,也證明了新興市場債務資產類別中可以找到非常多樣化的機會。

儘管美元走強提振了該基金未避險歐元股票類別的報酬,但在這種環境下,該基金報酬仍為負,表現落後於其基準指數。隨著信用利差擴大,對高收益債券的加碼部位(相對於基準指數)降低了相對報酬。

從積極角度看來,沒有持有黎巴嫩和埃塞俄比亞的部位對於報酬也有好處。我們在洪都拉斯(儘管總統選舉結果中,左翼候選人符合預期獲勝)和伯利茲(完成“藍色債券”交易)的加碼部位也對於表現有利。

亞洲投資級債券表現尤其出色,但該基金在此部位偏低。在當地市場,我們對一些非基準問題的曝險部位,包括埃及鎊和烏克蘭格里夫納,也做出了積極貢獻。雖然我們的土耳其可再生能源生產商 Aydem 部位因里拉走弱而受到影響,但沒有持有土耳其主權債券也有利報酬表現。

對於評估最新新冠變種病毒的下行風險,市場持觀望態度。全球通膨的影響很難衡量,因為較低的商品價格和經濟活動可能會被進一步的封鎖措施和新的供應瓶頸所抵消。若證明該變種病毒為虛驚一場(即現有疫苗相當有效,對全球整體經濟成長影響很小),那麼我們認為,將有大量新興市場債券資產具有吸引力,高收益債券尤其如此,投資級、 BB信用評等和本地市場債券亦是如此。

投組調整:

本月基金部位沒有發生重大變化。我們仍然略微減碼本地貨幣債券。我們減少了對秘魯當地主權債券的部位,因為其央行在升息方面似乎仍落後於大多數其他拉丁美洲央行,而且債券最近因積極的政治發展而上漲。

我們增加對巴西的曝險部位,因為我們認為升息消息已經被市場消化,但由於持續的財政問題和 2022 年選舉的不確定性,巴西雷亞爾在 2021 年仍接近其低點。

在硬貨幣債券中,我們減少了幾家表現優於各自主權債券公司(Grupo Aval、BNCE、GFH Financial 和友利銀行)的曝險。在最近的政治消息後,我們減少馬其頓的部位,並增加阿爾巴尼亞的新債券,因為其殖利率曲線對我們很有吸引力。對於中國房地產產業,我們從佳兆業轉而進入禹洲集團,因我們認為前者的財務狀況表現疲軟。

 
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