【印度溫度計】印度成長雙引擎:政策利多、中國加一趨勢

印度股市今年來為全球少數負報酬股市,印度指數及基金第一季因為淡季行情及市場雜音干擾,銀行金融、工業族群股價或有被連帶錯殺的情況,隨著預算案多項利多與China Plus One(中國加一)議題,提供印度成為中長線成長雙引擎。

政策利多 預約印度十年大行情

印度公布的預算案政策利多,包含(1)逐步整合財政預算與政府赤字,(2)提升政府支出與資本支出引導的經濟成長內容,(3)著重使用性提升,推動各項建設的實體與數位基礎建設,專注於經濟財政整合,並且兼顧基本成長。

近期歐美股市深受金融體系風險影響而震盪。相較之下,印度市場與成熟股市相關性較低,適合納入全球資產分散配置的一環,加上具備人口紅利、政策改革轉型、經濟擴張與企業雙位數成長等利多題材加持,印度仍是穩定配置的核心之一。

China Plus One發酵 國際企業轉進印度

根據聯合國數據顯示,印度人口將在今年4月份正式超車中國,成為全球人口最多的國家,坐擁人口紅利與龐大消費力優勢,低廉的勞工成本更吸引外資積極進駐印度,特別是國際科技業大廠,當中不乏許多台灣重量級企業。

從生產面觀察,印度政府近幾年積極強化國內基礎建設、改善法規限制、吸引外資投入,期望透過質與量的提升,將印度打造為新的世界工廠。尤其在疫情與美中貿易戰影響下,「China Plus One」策略逐漸受到重視,國際大廠生產供應鏈轉往南亞與東南亞,此舉不僅加快Made in India的轉型升級,也助長印度經濟轉趨強勢。

預料「China Plus One」的供應鏈轉移,可望推升印度超越中國,成為未來十年全球最值得投資的重要市場。市場預估印度今明兩年的實質GDP年增率分別為5.6%及6.5%,相對於全球的1.9%及2.5%,印度持續在眾多主要經濟體中為GDP成長最高的國家;另2023年印度企業每股盈餘成長率也上看18%。

股市區間整理 醞釀反彈契機

根據瀚亞投信與印度當地資產管理公司ICICIPRU提供的印度溫度計指數2022年2月指標數據為102.5;較上個月底微幅下滑,建議持續維持「股債平衡配置」。

印度股市今年以來出現難得修正,估值回落,吸引全球共同基金進場加碼,預期相對良好的經濟環境及政策將持續支撐整體股市表現,投資人可逢修正積極進場,單筆加碼搭配定期定額紀律投資,提前布局印股,預約印度十年大行情。選股策略方面,將關注政策轉型及產業利基的受惠產業,例如高價值醫藥、精密儀器、食品處理與電子半導體領域。

2023年2月印度溫度計分數:102.5
202302india

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/2

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

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