摘要
選前因不確定性高,結果出爐後,不論是誰當選,都會以利空出盡反映,而此次川普與共和黨贏得全面執政,美股短中期受政策轉換陣痛影響,波動可能會加劇,但AI支撐著長線走勢,若美股有出現修正,反而提供進場好時點,建議可伺機布局。
根據Lipper統計,截至2024年10月31日,瀚亞美國高科技基金1年績效為61.53%、2年績效為99.2%、3年績效及5年績效分別為38.04%與167.84%,皆居同類型基金的前段班。
川普可能加徵關稅 對經濟衝擊比預期小
瀚亞美國高科技基金經理人林元平表示,雖然共和黨此次大勝,並贏得全面執政的局面,也意味著川普在政策施行上將暢行無阻,但審視過去具備爭議的政策,包括:減稅等重大財政政策,都須經過國會通過才能實行,即便共和黨在兩院皆占有多數席次,但立法程序仍相當冗長。
市場最關注的為課徵關稅。雖然美國可透過總統行政命令,即可立即實施課徵關稅,但其實川普的實際企圖是藉此換取這些國家的直接投資並增加就業,高關稅的主張很大一部分只是宣示性意圖,研判對經濟造成的實際衝擊可能比預期來得小。
AI基礎建設維持強勢動能 需求不墜
瀚亞投信海外股票部協理王亨表示,美國景氣似乎已擺脫夏天以來的頹勢,仍具一定的韌性,資金面也轉趨寬鬆,經濟走向軟著陸仍是基本情境;產業方面,半導體產業仍受AI需求驅動,加上低基期族群如:車用電子,也出現營運改善跡象,使半導體周期處於正向發展。
大型CSP則紛紛表態雲服務Gen AI需求真實且強勁,也將繼續增加資本支出,緩解市場對基礎建設布建未能貨幣化的疑慮;隨GB200將於明年上半年放量出貨,AI伺服器仍是明年的市場亮點,顯示AI基礎建設投資熱潮方興未艾,PC或是智慧型手機也分別受惠WIN11帶動的換機潮,更多AI新應用將有望加速推出,需求在強勢的動能下不墜。
平台與終端應用的潛力市場規模大 中長期投資焦點
隨算力布建陸續到位,平台也逐漸受到市場關注。至於潛在市場規模較大,且為AI的終端應用,預期也將隨大語言模型運算成本走低、企業進行評估流程後逐漸導入,惟當前應用端尚未成熟,透明度不高,基金研究團隊也將持續關注該領域發展進程與受惠業者。
表:瀚亞美國高科技基金績效概況
資料來源:Lipper,資料截至2024/10/31。採原幣計算。*需同時符合以下幾項標準方能納入上述的同業評比: (1) Lipper環球分類中的資訊科技股票型基金;(2) 台灣核備可銷售;(3)主動型基金;(4) 美國持股佔比長時間平均值達該基金淨資產之60%以上。
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