摘要
聯準會於12月利率政策會議上暗示2025年將放緩降息步伐,市場情緒遭受打擊,全球市場遭拋售,對印度股市產生重大影響,惟印度長期經濟呈現向上,靜待不確定性降溫後,有望重啟上漲動能,建議投資人可採多重資產配置方式因應。
青睞印度大型股 較具上漲潛力
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024年12月數值為117.2,處在「股債均衡配置區」,意味著投資人可適當透過印度股票與債券,參與印度市場。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示,印度股市估值並不便宜,預計隨地緣政治緊張局勢升溫,股市走勢將出現波動,仍有待進一步調整;川普上任在即,後續將觀察新政府將如何應對高財政赤字、不斷上升的債務及高經常帳赤字等疲弱的情況。
由於印度權值股疲弱,自疫情後的上漲動能也落後中小型股,估值也位於相對合理區間,以評價面來看,更青睞於大型股,因為一旦外資重回印度市場,估計這些大型股受惠程度可能更大。
對於想增加印度股票的投資人而言,建議可布局波動度較低的大盤股,並不單壓同一產業,將不同產業的龍頭股作為長期投資標的,以降低風險。
五大利多 印股2025年可望反彈
時間來到2025年,瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,五大因素使印度股市反彈動能較強。包括:通膨穩定控制與經濟成長相對穩定等,基本面獲得支撐;政府縮減的資產支出,可望在不確定性因素解除後明顯提升。
2024年企業低獲利預期也為2025年帶來有利的基期效果,以及相對內生性經濟與地緣政治風險低等因素,都將對印度股市帶來利多效果。短線上可留意四大催化因素:川普上任後不確定性落地、印度年中政府預算案出爐、央行利率會議,及全球MSCI指數季度調整等。
圖、印度溫度計分數:117.2
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/12印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ ★瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據化將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。
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