摘要
受惠於企業獲利改善,印度指數經過一波修正後,市場震盪觸及年線後,近期走勢開始回穩;印度經濟成長將進入循環調整期,也開啟市場對印度央行降息的期待,情緒轉向樂觀下,印度指數反彈顯著,但尚未回到前波高點,建議投資人可定期定額布局。
布局印度股票 大型股為主
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024年11月數值為118.2,處在「股債均衡配置區」,意味著投資人應適當透過印度股票與債券,參與印度市場。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示,中國刺激措施以及較低的估值等因素,使外資前些時間大幅流出印度轉至中國市場;儘管印股波動加劇,但仍相信印度的長期結構性成長故事,印度數十年消費的根本驅動力與基礎建設成長穩固,包括:人口紅利、人均收入不斷上升、通膨受到控制、數位轉型、強勁的企業資產負債表與中央財政赤字。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示,印度股市估值不便宜,隨地緣政治緊張局勢加劇,川普新政也將對市場造成一定的波動;對想增持印度股票的投資人而言,建議可布局波動相對低的大型股票。
2025年 印度指數挑戰雙位數報酬
瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,若以中性評價估算,印度指數在未來一年,將有機會隨著企業獲利亮眼而走高,有機會挑戰雙位數報酬;川普上任後將對全球市場造成一定程度的影響,但印度內生性經濟足以帶動內需與消費升級,受到美國或全球市場影響較小。
林庭樟表示,印度指數整理後,近期上漲動能強,但尚未回到前波高點,仍是投資人進場布局的好時機,短線上中小型股的漲勢較強,相比之下,大型股的評價仍具吸引力;基金操作上聚焦消費、金融、工業及科技類股。
圖、印度溫度計分數:118.2
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/11印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ ★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據化將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。
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