摘要

 

受地緣政治的不確定性、企業獲利疲軟等影響,印度股市10月份結束連四個月的漲勢。瀚亞投信表示,中國一系列的救市措施,加上印度企業第二季度獲利情況不如市場預期,使外資將資金從印度股市轉向至中國股市;外資大幅度的賣超下,印股評價來到約21倍的較低水準,相較於過往便宜,建議投資人可伺機進場。


印股出現恐慌性賣壓 股債平衡抗波動

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024年10月下降至118.2,回到「股債均衡配置區」,也就是說,印度股市經過10月份的修正後,評價面已來到相對便宜的位置。

ICICI保誠資產管理表示,10月份受到中國刺激政策影響,加上印度獲利衰退、中國獲利反轉、印股籌碼供應增加、評價太貴等因素,導致印度股市當月急速下跌,但印度的消費與基礎設施成長的根本驅動力仍牢固存在,整體經濟前景依舊亮眼,投資人仍可透過股票與債券的多元資產配置的方式參與。

印度債方面,由於印度通膨高於預期,債券殖利率出現反彈,ICICI保誠資產管理預期,債券殖利率將受到未來的經濟數據而影響,這些都將影響RBI的未來政策,目前RBI鬆口將撤回寬鬆立場改為中立,市場預期今年底至明年第一季可能會啟動首次降息。短期內印度債投資策略,維持中性的存續期間,長天期債券則保持中性立場。

印股修正 提供投資人進場好機會

瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,中國股市上漲遠遠領先於基本面之前,這期間因財報處於真空期,市場無法驗證基本面是否有跟上股市的上漲,才會有如此急速的資產轉移效應;中國與印度經濟各有所長,投資人不應是互斥事件,應是比較投資持有時間與配置策略的問題。

市場也認為印度股票過於昂貴,但林庭樟認為,實際上除了中小類股之外,大型股還是相對便宜;近期出現的恐慌性賣壓,也給予投資人進場機會,對中長期投資穩健報酬需求的投資人而言,修正是很好的進場機會,建議可伺機布局。

圖、印度溫度計分數:118.2
eastspring-india-thermometer-202411.png

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/10

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ ★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。

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