摘要
聯準會降息2碼，提振市場情緒，外資9月份明顯回補印度股市，激勵走勢，連四個月呈現上漲。不過，10月份受季節性因素影響，印股走勢疲弱，下滑的經濟數據也拉高市場對印度儲備銀行(RBI)降息的期望。經濟中長線成長動能依舊牢固，建議投資人可逢低參與印度投資機會。
股債均衡配置 參與印度快速成長契機
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示，2024年9月上升至125.3，處「加碼債券部位區」。除了可續抱或增持印度股市部位之外，也可伺機加碼印度債券。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示，隨印度近十年來消費與基礎建設的成長，搭配具有優勢的人口紅利、人均收入的上升、數位轉型、企業擁有亮眼的資產負債表以及政府財政赤字的改善下，經濟皆可維持高速動能。
印度總體經濟雖然強勁，但股市估值並不便宜，尤其中小型股近一年多來漲勢凌厲，相比之下，大型股的估值較為合理；而透過混合多重資產的方式，參與印度成長契機，才能抵禦股市震盪所帶來的風險。
聯準會降息 對印股產生利多效果
瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示，8月到9月期間印度指標數據出現放緩的趨勢，如乘用車數量、電力需求、商品及服務稅(GST)徵收、製造業採購經理指數(PMI)，以及信貸增長等，引發市場對印度成長動能是否放緩感到擔憂；加上中國17箭救世政策期初，市場難免會出現資金輪轉與棄守的看法。
林庭樟說，由於印度經濟數據出現放緩跡象，市場預估最快可能12月就會啟動降息動作，近期印度股市的震盪或許會較大，但中長線全面性成長與投資的光譜不曾改變，建議投資人可持續參與印度投資，收穫印度黃金十年的改革成果。
圖、印度溫度計分數：125.3
資料來源：ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/9印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用，請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團（Prudential plc）共同成立之資產管理公司，目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ ★ 亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型，並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位，及股票落袋為安」等區間。
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