摘要
受惠於市場樂觀情緒、對聯準會降息期望增強、企業獲利亮眼等因素,印度 Sensex 指數 7 月份延續前一月上漲動能。瀚亞投信表示,印度企業財報亮眼,激勵股市有明顯漲幅,加上利率敏感度較高的能源股,在聯準會鴿派的助攻下,漲勢也相對凌厲,類股全面上漲下,激勵印度股市走勢。
印度新預算案審查 樂觀情緒推升股市
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 7 月上升至 122.3,處「加碼債券部位區」,隨股市評價上漲,從股債均衡配置區來到加碼債券部位區。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示, 印度新聯合政府 7 月政府開始進入新的預算案審查,市場認為是一份積極且樂觀的預算案,滿足印度維持健康經濟週期的所有要求,同時也將持續聚焦於經濟成長,也計畫縮小今年的財政赤字,並提高資本利得稅。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,有利的人口紅利、人均收入的上升、數位轉型、強勁的企業資產負債表及中央財政赤字的穩固等,都可使印度數十年來消費與基礎建設成長的根本驅動力依舊牢固存在。
由於印度經濟成長實力仍相當穩固,但由於印股股市評價面來到不便宜的位置,建議投資人應透過多重資產的投資思維,具靈活性的投資股票與債券,繼續持有股票部位的同時,也可適當地投入印度債。
MSCI 新興市場指數 上調印度比重
瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,MSCI 新興市場指數調升印度股票權重,並調降中國比重,使兩者在指數的權重差距縮小,即將出現的權重交叉反映出兩大經濟體發展的明顯分歧。
印度過去十年通過大規模經濟改革,如推行商品與服務稅(GST)和數字化支付基礎設施,顯著促進了經濟增長;同時期至今,中國始終未能走出疫情與產業轉型的泥淖,以及國際地緣政治困擾。
2023 年印度實質 GDP 增長率達 6.1%,遠超過中國的 4.4%。展望未來,印度在改革道路上將持續吸引內外資投入,未來十年將持續目睹印度令人驚豔的發展,建議投資人可定期定額布局印度基金。
圖、印度溫度計分數:122.3
![eastspring-india-thermometer-202408.png](/images/default-source/perspectives/spot-light/eastspring-india-thermometer-202408.png?sfvrsn=43b58031_1&Culture=zh-TW)
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/7印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ ★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。
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