摘要

 

印度選舉不確定降溫後,外資開始回流印度股市,激勵走勢上漲,印度 Sensex 指數更來到 8 萬點大關。瀚亞投信表示,印度大選結果使市場情緒轉向樂觀,加上印度央行上調當地 GDP 成長預期、通膨也有所放緩,多項利多激勵內外資雙引擎助攻,股市屢創新高。


外資重新回流印股 印股飆新高

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 6 月明顯上升至 120.3,處「加碼債券部位區」,隨股市評價上漲,從股債均衡配置區來到加碼債券部位區。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,除了大選結果與印度經濟數據強勁之外,印度股市 6 月份的部分漲幅,來自於美國通膨與零售銷售數據疲軟的消息,使市場對聯準會至少降息 1 次的期望。

印度各產業公司強勁的獲利表現,推動整體收益成長表現;在內資與外資雙引擎的助攻下,印股 6 月漲勢強勁,惟接近月底時,受投資人獲利了結所致,市場出現邊際損失,但印股市值再突破新高,來到 5 兆美元水位,從 4 兆美元到 5 兆美元,僅花費 0.5 年時間。

在有利的人口紅利、人均收入不斷上升、可控制的通膨、數位轉型、強勁的企業資產負債表以及中央財政赤字的鞏固等利多加持下,印度數十年來的消費與基礎建設成長的根本驅動力依舊穩健。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,印度將迎來全面性的預算審查,預計不會出現重大的政策變化,可能會更加關注農村收入與就業情況,惟預算相關的消息面可能會加劇印股走勢波動;但印度總體經濟仍相當強勁,估值也很高,建議投資人持有股票同時,也可增加印度債券的持有比例。

內外資合力助攻印股 大型股掀補漲行情

境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度過去數十年受到諸多限制,導致經濟發展受阻,而近年來在莫迪政府的支持下,持續增加公私領域的資本投入之外,政策層面也推出多項產業促進條例與執行層面的改革,如:PM Gati Shakti,用以統籌、規劃、分配、執行國家基礎建設與產業發展藍圖,使印度經濟發展不停歇,一直都在政經改革的道路上。

雖然印股已漲多,但仍有上漲潛力。林庭樟說,印度內資透過 SIP 等機制,持續參與這波狂牛盛宴,如台灣一樣,內資已經逐漸取代外資主導市場走勢的地位;隨著全球股市水漲船高,相較之下,印度股市仍在接近高原而非山頂的位置,且大型股仍處於相對低點位置,預料市場行情還未走完,建議投資人可透過定期定額方式參與印度投資,收穫黃金十年的改革成果。

圖、印度溫度計分數:120.3
eastspring-india-thermometer-202406464605b3-5ac5-481f-b405-3336a6de5259.png

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/6

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。 ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ ★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。

**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2024/6/30 為 163.71 億元新台幣。

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