摘要

 

印度總理大選開跑,市場觀望情緒較濃厚,股市走勢呈現高檔震盪。瀚亞投信表示,當前正處選舉月份,經濟數據也小幅回落,但仍居長期高點,處高原震盪格局,而通膨數據持續回落,整體經濟穩健,靜待選舉結果出爐後,外資有望重新回流印股,進一步推升走勢。


印度企業獲利穩健 經濟成長動能強

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 4 月小幅回升,處「股債均衡配置區」,隨著股市評價上升,指標也逼近「加碼債券部位區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,受惠於印度企業獲利穩健、印度經濟亮眼以及全球股市高漲,印度股市 4 月份多頭行情仍持續當中;印度央行利率政策會議按兵不動,顯示出對財年 2025 年的經濟成長持樂觀態度,市場情緒也相對高漲。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,由於印度銀行業強勁的業務更新,類股也出現明顯地上漲,使投資人對印度金融股保持樂觀態度,資金簇擁下,激勵金融類股的走勢。

靜待大選結果出爐 外資有望回流印股

境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的 瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度企業獲利自 2023 年以來呈現穩健向上格局,首季財報優於預期比例以金融與汽車產業表現較為亮眼,市場也預估印度企業獲利將逐季增長,後市行情仍值得期待。

林庭樟表示,印度總理大選開跑,結果將在 6 月出爐,但因市場觀望情緒濃厚,4 月份 PMI 指數小幅回落,但仍居長期高點,整體印股盤勢呈現高檔震盪格局;今年印度股市上漲動能來自內資力量,外資則因選舉因素較保守,前四月資金呈現淨賣超現象,靜待選舉結果愈接近明朗階段,有望進一步吸引外資流入,推升走勢。

林庭樟接著說,美國通膨數據回落,提振對聯準會降息的期待,美元指數有機會回落,若有機會下跌至 101 水位,外資流入印度股市的動能也會較顯著;除此,受惠於食品與能源價格下跌,促成通膨數據持續回落,市場也預估今年印度央行有機會降息 1 碼,對股市帶來加分效果。

圖、印度溫度計
eastspring-india-thermometer-202405

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/4

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2024/4/30 為 152.95 億元新台幣。

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