摘要

 

受惠於 2025 新財年的施政預算、市場樂觀情緒帶動下,印度 Sensex 指數上漲動能強。瀚亞投信表示,由於市場對印度經濟成長保持樂觀態度,股票市場出現跨產業的廣泛買盤,同時,印度通膨持續回落,以及強勁的工業製造數據,亮眼經濟數據進一步激勵印股行情。


外資回流 雙引擎激勵印股續漲動能

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 2 月小幅回落至 114.4,處「股債均衡配置區」,隨著股市評價上升,指標也逼近「加碼債券部位區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,2 月份 FII(外國間接投資)與 DII(本國機構投資)都有明顯流入印度股票;由此可見,外資今年開始重拾對印度股票的信心,在內外資雙引擎發動下,印股走勢維持高檔。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,印度總體經濟情勢依舊強勁,施政預算也進一步鞏固政府促進健康經濟的承諾,儘管經濟看起來強勁,但目前股票估值並不便宜,建議既有投資人繼續持有,因長期經濟發展故事仍完整;對想增加部位的投資人,建議應靈活調整投組。

持續看好印度的汽車、水泥及電信產業,同時,也建議將消費必需品、金融、保險等較具估值吸引力的產業納入投資組合,容易在類股輪動下受惠。未來將持續關注總理大選前夕、全球央行行動帶來的影響,預料若執政黨若可連任,股市續漲動能有望延續至選後。

印股交割速度縮減 有望創造新一波行情

為因應國際趨勢,印度將於 3 月底試行股票「T+0」結算制度。境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,該政策將讓投資人資金運用更加靈活,且符合國際趨勢,有機會吸引更多外資流入,進一步激勵股票行情。

林庭樟說,印度企業利潤在 GDP 中的比重創下新高,主因來自於私人資本支出循環、企業負債表再槓桿化,及當地消費結構性上升所帶動。除此,執政黨連任支持,可確保經濟政策的延續性,激勵投資氣氛高昂,當前情緒指標尚未達到高峰,股市評價具歷史高點仍有相當距離,建議投資人可定期定額介入印度基金。

圖、印度溫度計分數:114.4
eastspring-india-thermometer-202403

資料來源:Capelle 等機構根據 ICE Data Services 數據提供的 2023 年資料;以及金融穩定理事會氣候相關財務揭露工作組。(進行揭露的公司的百分比;2021 年)。

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2024/2/29 為 149.43 億元新台幣

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