摘要

 

印度指數 2024 年開年維持強勁續漲動能,走勢一度攀至逾 73,000 點,隨後受外部因素影響走弱,在 72,000 至 73,000 間高檔震盪。瀚亞投資(新加坡)表示,全球供應鏈轉移下,外資進駐印度設廠的興趣逐漸提升,強勁的經濟有望進一步推升印度股市的走勢,建議投資人把握波動拉回機會、加碼布局,掌握印度長期經濟成長動能。


印度指數衝高 動態調整股債資產

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 1 月小幅回落至 115,處「股債均衡配置區」,隨著股市評價上升,指標也逼近「加碼債券部位區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,印度的總體經濟情勢依舊強勁,預算案更加鞏固政府進一步促進經濟健康的承諾;儘管印度經濟相當強勁,但股票估值並不便宜,投資人需透過多重資產的配置計畫,動態調整股債資產的比例,以降低股票曝險風險

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,印度股票方面,持續看好汽車、水泥及電信等產業,同時,消費必需品、金融及保險等也是當前市場較有吸引力的類股,可逐步增持;對於現有投資人,建議可續抱印度股市,因當地長期成長故事仍相當完整,對想增加持股的投資人而言,應靈活操作。

印股盤整階段 建議拉回可加碼介入

境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度國內稅收相對 GDP 比持續攀升,強而有力的稅收徵收,使印度財政赤字趨勢下降,稅收已成政府資產負債表中的重要支柱。

經濟發展過程中,銀行扮演重要金援角色。林庭樟表示,印度銀行業的資本適足率充足、不良資產比例下降及信貸承購增加,各項指標均顯示銀行體質強健,將可持續扮演印度經濟成長的關鍵催化劑。

不過印度股市衝高後,估值來到不便宜水位。林庭樟指出,投資人更需仰賴著重基本面與價值選股的投資方法,以動態管理可能產生的風險與報酬,同時,預估在資金輪動下,大型股有望掀起一波補漲行情,近期盤勢波動較大,投資人可把握波動拉回的機會進行加碼,迎接行情。

圖、印度溫度計分數:115
eastspring-india-thermometer-202401

資料來源:資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL, 2024/1。

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。

*資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2024/1/31 為 144.58 億元新台幣。

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