摘要
受惠於美國聯準會態度轉向鴿派,全球資本市場情緒高漲,印度指數2023年12月再創新高,衝破72,000點關卡。瀚亞投信表示,隨著印度大選在即,執政黨有望再次連任,經濟政策有望延續;此外,市場不確定性降溫,外資與散戶情緒轉為樂觀,印度指數大盤漲勢凌厲,預估印度指數2024年續漲動能仍相當強勁。
聯準會態度偏鴿 印股重拾國際資金青睞
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2023年12月強漲至116.6,處「股債均衡配置區」,隨著股市評價上升,指標也逼近「加碼債券部位區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示,聯準會利率政策轉向寬鬆後,預料全球資金將開始從美國移轉至成長相對較快的新興國家經濟體,印度有望成為其中一個受惠國,如此一來可預期印度股市也將重新受到外資青睞,後市行情值得期待。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示,儘管印度的總體經濟強勁,但股市估值並不便宜,建議投資人需以多重資產的配置方式,合理分配印度股債的投資比例,以降低持有部位的波動度;對於原先就持有印度股債的投資人,建議可持續投資,因為印度的長期前景仍相當看好,未來也將持續關注大選前夕與全球央行決策等事件,對資本市場帶來的影響。
多項利多加持 印度指數上漲動能強
境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度股市在大選、貨幣寬鬆、原油價格走勢、地緣政治、外資與散戶的投資情緒轉向樂觀下,印度指數有望維持強勁的上漲態勢。
林庭樟說,印度股市評價雖然在高檔,但仍屬合理,且下方有支撐,目前市值/GDP比約120%,尚未達到2007年時的巔峰值,仍有上調空間。
另從資金面來看,印度市場向來由內資主導,隨著印股晉升至全球第五大,除被動型資金外,全球主動型基金買入印度的比重仍偏低,預期未來所帶來的資金行情可期。此外,2024年降息題材,預料也將吸引外資回流。
由於印度兼具人口紅利與年輕勞動力的優勢,成為現在外資設廠的首選之地,意味著一旦國際大型企業陸續進駐印度,將為當地帶來更多工作機會,翻轉印度家庭收入金字塔結構,進而帶動更高的消費力與更強勁的經濟成長力。
隨印度經濟快速發展,印度指數續攀新高動能強勁,建議投資人可定期定額布局印度基金,參與印度經濟發展的黃金十年。
圖、印度溫度計分數:116.6
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL, 2023/12
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。
*資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至2023/12/31為134.13億元新台幣
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