摘要
全球主要股票市場 2023 年 11 月強勁反彈,印度股票市場也從中受惠。瀚亞投信表示,印度在政治穩定、設施與建設預算壓力解除、政經社會改革力道將延續等不確定性因素降溫下,對股市帶來正面效果,而當地的長期發展成長故事,仍持續上演當中。
停止降息訊號浮現 印度指數恢復上漲動能
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2023 年 11 月重拾上漲動能至109.6,處「股債均衡配置區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示, 印度通膨壓力有所減緩,市場開始期待印度央行將停止升息,而印度企業財報樂觀開出也較市場預期亮眼,未來在經濟快速發展下,也樂觀其成未來表現,樂觀情緒帶動印度指數恢復上漲動能,而預料印度大型權值股將較具表現空間。
選舉行情開跑 定期定額介入印度基金
境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度大選開跑,分析過去4次大選,從國內經濟附加價值毛額(GVA)角度觀察,選前將略有下降,選後則普遍有所提升。根據歷史經驗,印度大選行情將從選前延續到選後,預計股、匯市在選後續漲動能也會相對強勁。
林庭樟說,目前印度市場在全球主動型基金中的佔比仍偏低;換言之,若基金能提升印度指數的比重,將會進一步推升印股的走勢。整體而言,印度在基本面與政策面的加持下,長期成長動能仍不變,而 2024 年的大選行情與選後行情,也將持續推升印度經濟與股市表現。
林庭樟表示,儘管現在印股處在相對不便宜的位置,但估計印度股市仍維持一定的成長動能,建議投資人可透過定期定額方式介入,掌握行情。
圖、印度溫度計分數:109.6
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/11
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。
**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至2023/11/30 為 128.65 億元新台幣Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
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