摘要

 

全球主要股票市場 2023 年 11 月強勁反彈,印度股票市場也從中受惠。瀚亞投信表示,印度在政治穩定、設施與建設預算壓力解除、政經社會改革力道將延續等不確定性因素降溫下,對股市帶來正面效果,而當地的長期發展成長故事,仍持續上演當中。

停止降息訊號浮現 印度指數恢復上漲動能

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2023 年 11 月重拾上漲動能至109.6,處「股債均衡配置區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示, 印度通膨壓力有所減緩,市場開始期待印度央行將停止升息,而印度企業財報樂觀開出也較市場預期亮眼,未來在經濟快速發展下,也樂觀其成未來表現,樂觀情緒帶動印度指數恢復上漲動能,而預料印度大型權值股將較具表現空間。

選舉行情開跑 定期定額介入印度基金

境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度大選開跑,分析過去4次大選,從國內經濟附加價值毛額(GVA)角度觀察,選前將略有下降,選後則普遍有所提升。根據歷史經驗,印度大選行情將從選前延續到選後,預計股、匯市在選後續漲動能也會相對強勁。

林庭樟說,目前印度市場在全球主動型基金中的佔比仍偏低;換言之,若基金能提升印度指數的比重,將會進一步推升印股的走勢。整體而言,印度在基本面與政策面的加持下,長期成長動能仍不變,而 2024 年的大選行情與選後行情,也將持續推升印度經濟與股市表現。

林庭樟表示,儘管現在印股處在相對不便宜的位置,但估計印度股市仍維持一定的成長動能,建議投資人可透過定期定額方式介入,掌握行情。

圖、印度溫度計分數:109.6
eastspring-india-thermometer-202312資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/11

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至2023/11/30 為 128.65 億元新台幣

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