摘要
受外部環境干擾，外資對印度股票轉趨保守，連續二月呈現賣超，但內資則持續買超，大盤仍有所支撐。在印度政府加大資本支出、健康的稅收徵收、積極的政府政策改革之際，經濟仍維持強勁動能，估計當國際市場不確定性降溫時，外資回補的動能將相對強勁。
若進一步觀察印度 FDI（外國直接投資）資本組成的變化，相較於過往有所優化；儘管受國際環境影響，外資淨流入股市金額有所減少，但債券吸引的資金仍相對穩定，使整體資本組成較以往更加優化。
印度股債投資價值浮現 聚焦大選、全球央行決策
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示，10 月下滑至 104.3，處「股債均衡配置區」，當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。
ICICI 保誠資產管理表示，由於地緣政治緊張升溫、市場擔憂高利率對經濟層面的衝擊等，導致印股走勢在 10 月份震盪激烈，但在印度政府加大資本支出、健康的稅收徵收、積極的政府政策改革之際，經濟仍維持強勁動能，估計當國際市場不確定性降溫時，外資回補的動能將相對強勁。
ICICI 保誠資產管理接著說，印度企業最新一季財報的獲利超出預期，驗證印度經濟成長故事仍持續當中；有鑑於先前中小型股已漲多，市場對於中小類股的期待也相對高，但最新一季財報部分類股不如期待，導致走勢波動較激烈，資金也開始輪轉至大型權值股，看好大型股的後市表現。
現在印度股票與債券投資訊號雙雙浮現，適合投資人進行動態調整資產配置。ICICI 保誠資產管理建議，投資人可將資產平均分配在印度股票與債券，以平衡資金波動；未來關注焦點將著重於印度總理大選與全球央行的行動，消息面與相關決策都將左右印度股債的表現。
印度經濟數據 預估選前下滑後回升
境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示，從現在到明年印度大選後，印度經濟成長、通膨、財政赤字及預算方向、國內建設與資本投資等經濟數據，都可能在選前略為回落，並於選後恢復上升趨勢。
林庭樟接著說，不論是哪一個政黨聯盟或陣營當選，將時間拉長來看，印度整體經濟發展都是不可逆的，持續看好印度經濟成長動能；建議投資人應把握每次股市拉回修正時機，加碼布局印度基金。
圖、印度溫度計分數：104.3
資料來源：ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/10
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用，請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團（Prudential plc）共同成立之資產管理公司，目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型，並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位，跟股票落袋為安」等區間。
**資料來源：投信投顧公會，瀚亞印度基金規模截至2023/10/31 為 119.45 億元新台幣更多文章
Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).