摘要

 

印度指數 9 月一度創新高至 67,838 點後拉回,近期在 66,000 至 67,000 間震盪。瀚亞投信表示,儘管外資 9 月中下旬出現匯出印度股市,但第三季的淨流入仍超越其他亞股。隨印度經濟穩定擴張,國際地位及外資設廠意願拉高,印股走勢中長期仍是向上格局,有望再創新高。

印度股債具吸引力 平衡資金波動

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,9 月重返向上動能至 107.9,處「股債均衡配置區」,當前投資人應合理均衡分配印度股票及債券的持有部位。

ICICI保誠資產管理指出,市場對印度經濟成長與企業獲利能力仍持樂觀態度,以及當地下行風險的淡化,股票估值更具吸引力;根據最新財報公告,企業獲利能力超乎預期,雖然中小型股今年來漲勢凌厲,但近期資金已開始輪動,從估值方面,更看好大型股的表現。

ICICI保誠資產管理表示,全球央行政策及印度總理大選將於2024年舉行,都將是觀察的重點事件。根據歷史經驗,印度總理大選前夕都會有大選行情,都會激勵印股走勢。

同時,ICICI保誠資產管理建議,投資人除了布局印度股市之外,債券也具投資價值。雖然印度通膨仍面臨上行壓力,但中期來看,貨幣政策與商業周期的結合,預計經濟正在以合理的速度成長,而通膨速度處於溫和且可承受的範圍。預期印度¬央行政策利率短期內應都會按兵不動,固定收益資產在高利率下,也具有一定的吸引力,建議投資人於此時可均衡配置印度股市與債券。

大選行情啟動 定期定額印度基金

境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度總理大選將於明年舉行,政治議題將與經濟表現在股市具備同樣的重要性,過去幾次大選都能對印度指數帶來激勵效應,愈接近大選走勢會偏強。

政治與經濟議題雙利多引擎助攻下,不排除印度指數有望再續攀新高;近期印度股市拉回整理,反而提供投資人很好進場的機會,建議可逢低加碼或定期定額入手印度基金商品。

圖、印度溫度計分數:107.9
eastspring-india-thermometer-202310資料來源︰彭博。資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/9

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

**資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至2023/9/30為119.2億元新台幣。

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