摘要

 

外資持續回補之下,印度指數 7 月一度站上 67,000 點,近期走勢漲多拉回至 65,000 點之上,進入震盪區間。從基本面各項經濟與產業狀況來看,印度仍處在一個穩定上升的軌道;惟 4 月以來漲幅過多,預估下半年表現相對有限,但經濟黃金十年定調仍未改變,建議投資人伺機布局或逢低加碼買進,以掌握印度經濟商機。


印度股債 投資價值浮現

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,7 月維持向上動能,攀升至 112.7,處股債均衡配置區,意味著當前投資人應將資產配置均衡分配在印度股票與債券資產。

ICICI 保誠資產管理指出,印度長期結構性成長故事、相對有利的總體經濟展望,適合投資人長期持有;同時,透過較高的資本支出、降低稅收及財政整頓,以支撐印度經濟成長。財政改革加上政府積極發展經濟下,印度正朝「中國+1」的目標前進。

ICICI 保誠資產管理接著說,歐美央行政策、地緣政治風險及外資流動等因素都可能會左右大盤走勢,而銀行、汽車、基礎建設及資財等與印度經濟發展關聯性高的產業,均保持樂觀,而生技醫療族群的估值也相對便宜,持續看好其後市表現。

印度債方面,ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,公債債券殖利率於 7 月經歷過山車般的波動,7 月底印度 10 年期公債上漲 7.18%;公司債殖利率則影響較小。因公債殖利率攀升,信用利差也逐漸收窄。

印度企業 Q2 財報 優於預期比例走高

印度企業第二季財報開出,維持前一季向上動能,優於市場預期的比例持續走高,尤其與印度經濟密切相關的產業表現更加亮眼。境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度內需動能在疫情過後強勁復甦,且外資持續進駐設廠,也將帶動公共事業及相關族群獲利展現出傲人的成長力道。

林庭樟表示,隨疫情復甦,全球經濟環境獲得改善,對印度帶來正面幫助,印度股票也將持續受外資青睞,今年來印度獲得外資流入的金額居新興亞股前段班,加上企業獲利展望支撐股市評價,印度中長期向上格局毫無疑慮。

林庭樟接著說,受到聖嬰影響,印度季風雨季偏少,將對下半年通膨造成影響,雖然衝擊層面逐年降低,投資人仍須留意市場信心與股價處高檔的影響,走勢將會有所波動,但黃金十年的故事正開啟序幕,投資人在走勢波動之際,可增加持有部位,迎接中長線行情。

圖、印度溫度計分數:112.7
eastspring-india-thermometer-202308資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/7

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

*資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2023 / 7 / 31為 112.3 億元新台幣。

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