摘要

 

印度股市重拾外資青睞,資金大量湧入印度股市,促使指數突破歷史新高,站上 65,000。瀚亞投信表示,印度強勁的經濟成長動能,吸引外資興趣,自 3 月以來,FPI(外國資產組合淨投資)不斷增加。儘管印度股市突破新高,但長期的經濟動能仍對股市帶來信心,中長期走勢仍是向上格局,投資人可採定期定額,搭配逢低加碼方式布局印度基金,以迎接經濟起飛的黃金十年。

總體經濟強勁 為股市注入興奮劑

根據瀚亞投信印度溫度計最新指標顯示,6 月持續維持向上動能,攀升至 109.4,股債均衡配置區,意味著股債均具有投資價值,除了持有股票之外,也可以增配置更多元的金融資產, 像是:印度債券。

ICICI 保誠資產管理指出,印度長期結構性的成長故事及相對有利的總體經濟,為長期投資人帶來信心。印度中央及各州政府的預算提出更高的資本支出,透過降低稅收與財政整頓等措施,以支撐當地經濟。

ICICI 保誠資產管理接著說,在印度經濟發展期間,相對看好與經濟密切相關的產業,如:銀行、汽車、基礎建設及資本財等產業;除此,印度醫藥產業因具有合理的估值與收益,加上產業展望相對樂觀,也是看好的族群之一。

重拾外資青睞 印度各產業 Q2 全面走高

境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,外資第二季大幅度流入印度市場,促使股市擺脫低氣壓,重拾上漲動能;在各大產業全面性上漲之際,目前約有六成以上的 BSE200 股票都位於 52 週均線之上,中大型公司市值更位於二至三年來的高峰。

根據高盛最新預估,2023 年印度 GDP 成長將從 6% 上升至 6.4%,是少數經濟成長調高的市場;高速成長動能也將延續下去,預估於 2024 年經濟成長將達 6.3% 的高水準。

政策加持 中長線行情啟動

林庭樟接著說,印度經濟體具備最好的結構性成長、強勁的總體經濟、熱絡的產業活動、企業盈餘持續成長,及接軌國際等優勢,屬當前亞太地區經濟成長動能最強勁的國家,同時市場在經濟背景、貨幣化方面擁有良好紀錄,具備卓越的長期回報。

由於印度股市已攀新高,短期挑戰主要來自絕對與相對較高的評價與溢價。林庭樟說,第三季至下半年,印度主要風險將來自季風降雨、明年度國會大選、升息及資金流的干擾,雖然依照歷史經驗,不足以影響走勢及動能,但指數處較高的位置,走勢難免會有些波動。

2023 年 6 月印度溫度計分數:109.4
202306india
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/6

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團 (Prudential plc) 共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

*資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2023/6/30 為 109.2 億元新台幣。

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