摘要
印度股市重拾外資青睞，資金大量湧入印度股市，促使指數突破歷史新高，站上 65,000。瀚亞投信表示，印度強勁的經濟成長動能，吸引外資興趣，自 3 月以來，FPI（外國資產組合淨投資）不斷增加。儘管印度股市突破新高，但長期的經濟動能仍對股市帶來信心，中長期走勢仍是向上格局，投資人可採定期定額，搭配逢低加碼方式布局印度基金，以迎接經濟起飛的黃金十年。
總體經濟強勁 為股市注入興奮劑
根據瀚亞投信印度溫度計最新指標顯示，6 月持續維持向上動能，攀升至 109.4，股債均衡配置區，意味著股債均具有投資價值，除了持有股票之外，也可以增配置更多元的金融資產， 像是：印度債券。
ICICI 保誠資產管理指出，印度長期結構性的成長故事及相對有利的總體經濟，為長期投資人帶來信心。印度中央及各州政府的預算提出更高的資本支出，透過降低稅收與財政整頓等措施，以支撐當地經濟。
ICICI 保誠資產管理接著說，在印度經濟發展期間，相對看好與經濟密切相關的產業，如：銀行、汽車、基礎建設及資本財等產業；除此，印度醫藥產業因具有合理的估值與收益，加上產業展望相對樂觀，也是看好的族群之一。
重拾外資青睞 印度各產業 Q2 全面走高
境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示，外資第二季大幅度流入印度市場，促使股市擺脫低氣壓，重拾上漲動能；在各大產業全面性上漲之際，目前約有六成以上的 BSE200 股票都位於 52 週均線之上，中大型公司市值更位於二至三年來的高峰。
根據高盛最新預估，2023 年印度 GDP 成長將從 6% 上升至 6.4%，是少數經濟成長調高的市場；高速成長動能也將延續下去，預估於 2024 年經濟成長將達 6.3% 的高水準。
政策加持 中長線行情啟動
林庭樟接著說，印度經濟體具備最好的結構性成長、強勁的總體經濟、熱絡的產業活動、企業盈餘持續成長，及接軌國際等優勢，屬當前亞太地區經濟成長動能最強勁的國家，同時市場在經濟背景、貨幣化方面擁有良好紀錄，具備卓越的長期回報。
由於印度股市已攀新高，短期挑戰主要來自絕對與相對較高的評價與溢價。林庭樟說，第三季至下半年，印度主要風險將來自季風降雨、明年度國會大選、升息及資金流的干擾，雖然依照歷史經驗，不足以影響走勢及動能，但指數處較高的位置，走勢難免會有些波動。
2023 年 6 月印度溫度計分數：109.4
資料來源：ICICI PRUDENTIAL，2023/6
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用，請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團 (Prudential plc) 共同成立之資產管理公司，目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型，並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位，跟股票落袋為安」等區間。
*資料來源：投信投顧公會，瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2023/6/30 為 109.2 億元新台幣。更多文章
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