摘要

 

隨經濟全面復甦,印度股市恢復上漲動能,站上 63,000,市值更一舉衝到全球第四。瀚亞投信表示,疫情過後,印度內需動能強勁,財政改革也吸引外資進駐,FDI(外國直接投資)高於 FII(境外機構投資者資金),意味著印度正朝世界工廠之路邁進,將帶動當地就業、內需消費等,當前股價仍處相對便宜的位置,具有一定的投資吸引力。

總體經濟強勁 為股市注入興奮劑

根據瀚亞投信印度溫度計最新指標顯示,5 月份指標維持向上動能,自上月 104.3 攀升到 108.8,處於「股債均衡配置區」,意味著股債均具有投資價值;自今年 3 月以後,印度股市重拾外資青睞,股票估值也隨之走高,而強勁的總體經濟也為印度股票注入興奮劑,燃起市場多頭情緒。

ICICI 保誠資產管理指出,印度經濟數據已為股市帶來上漲動能,對於想掌握印度黃金十年的投資人而言,可以將資金投入多項印度投資工具,如:印度股票、印度債券或者平衡型商品,也相對看好銀行、汽車、基礎建設等與印度經濟相關的產業行情表現。

經濟全面復甦 企業財報旺季到

境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,受惠於龐大的內需市場,政府積極擴增基礎建設,印度企業第一季財報優於預期,推升股市走勢,同時,印度經濟正開始全面性復甦,企業財報才剛要進入旺季動能,預估今明兩年的企業獲利都有機會達到雙位數的成長。

印度長期結構性成長與高成長的總體經濟,黃金十年也開啟序幕。林庭樟說, 非必需消費品第一季獲利年增 181%,通訊、工業產業也有 54% 及 44% 的年增率,優於市場預期,也驗證印度的復甦動能相當強。

政策加持 中長線行情啟動

印度政府透過降低稅率及財政整頓方式,推動內需消費,支撐印度經濟成長,健康的稅收徵管、積極且有力的政策推動,藉此吸引外資進駐,讓印度有望成為「中國 2.0」之路邁進。

印度通膨也持續降溫,有效改善企業獲利率。林庭樟表示,疫情過後的印度,挾帶著人口紅利、利多政策擁簇等優勢,今年全年 GDP 預估仍有 6% 以上的高水準,2024 財年也能延續高成長動能,為印度股市帶來更多上漲行情及動能。

林庭樟指出,從經濟、政經、企業獲利等各角度來看印度股市,仍處相對低檔的位置,建議投資人可把握目前相對便宜的時候,持續買進印度主動型基金,由專業團隊為投資人選取較具潛力的個股,並依照市況進行進攻與防守。

2023 年 5 月印度溫度計分數:108.8
202305india
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/5

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團 (Prudential plc) 共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

*資料來源:投信投顧公會,瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2023/5/31 為 97.4 億元新台幣。

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