摘要
隨經濟全面復甦，印度股市恢復上漲動能，站上 63,000，市值更一舉衝到全球第四。瀚亞投信表示，疫情過後，印度內需動能強勁，財政改革也吸引外資進駐，FDI（外國直接投資）高於 FII（境外機構投資者資金），意味著印度正朝世界工廠之路邁進，將帶動當地就業、內需消費等，當前股價仍處相對便宜的位置，具有一定的投資吸引力。
總體經濟強勁 為股市注入興奮劑
根據瀚亞投信印度溫度計最新指標顯示，5 月份指標維持向上動能，自上月 104.3 攀升到 108.8，處於「股債均衡配置區」，意味著股債均具有投資價值；自今年 3 月以後，印度股市重拾外資青睞，股票估值也隨之走高，而強勁的總體經濟也為印度股票注入興奮劑，燃起市場多頭情緒。
ICICI 保誠資產管理指出，印度經濟數據已為股市帶來上漲動能，對於想掌握印度黃金十年的投資人而言，可以將資金投入多項印度投資工具，如：印度股票、印度債券或者平衡型商品，也相對看好銀行、汽車、基礎建設等與印度經濟相關的產業行情表現。
經濟全面復甦 企業財報旺季到
境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示，受惠於龐大的內需市場，政府積極擴增基礎建設，印度企業第一季財報優於預期，推升股市走勢，同時，印度經濟正開始全面性復甦，企業財報才剛要進入旺季動能，預估今明兩年的企業獲利都有機會達到雙位數的成長。
印度長期結構性成長與高成長的總體經濟，黃金十年也開啟序幕。林庭樟說， 非必需消費品第一季獲利年增 181%，通訊、工業產業也有 54% 及 44% 的年增率，優於市場預期，也驗證印度的復甦動能相當強。
政策加持 中長線行情啟動
印度政府透過降低稅率及財政整頓方式，推動內需消費，支撐印度經濟成長，健康的稅收徵管、積極且有力的政策推動，藉此吸引外資進駐，讓印度有望成為「中國 2.0」之路邁進。
印度通膨也持續降溫，有效改善企業獲利率。林庭樟表示，疫情過後的印度，挾帶著人口紅利、利多政策擁簇等優勢，今年全年 GDP 預估仍有 6% 以上的高水準，2024 財年也能延續高成長動能，為印度股市帶來更多上漲行情及動能。
林庭樟指出，從經濟、政經、企業獲利等各角度來看印度股市，仍處相對低檔的位置，建議投資人可把握目前相對便宜的時候，持續買進印度主動型基金，由專業團隊為投資人選取較具潛力的個股，並依照市況進行進攻與防守。
2023 年 5 月印度溫度計分數：108.8
資料來源：ICICI PRUDENTIAL，2023/5
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用，請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及保誠集團 (Prudential plc) 共同成立之資產管理公司，目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型，並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位，跟股票落袋為安」等區間。
*資料來源：投信投顧公會，瀚亞印度基金規模截至 2023/5/31 為 97.4 億元新台幣。更多文章
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