摘要
印度自2023年4月起進入新的財政年度，利多消息不斷，印度股市順勢反彈站上62,000。瀚亞投信指出，從近期通膨數據連續下降、企業Q1財報亮眼、外資淨流入，以及股市評價仍在低檔等諸多正面消息來看，印度股債資產已重拾動能，補漲行情可期。
復甦才剛開始 補漲行情可期
根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標，4月指標較上月100.8反轉向上至104.3，反映出股、債市第二季起同步反彈。境內印度股票型基金規模最大*的瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示，由於印股今年以來表現僅上漲1%，大幅落後其他股市，在各項數據利多不斷刺激下，後續上漲空間可以期待。
林庭樟表示，從經濟指標與產業數據來看，印度正處於擴張階段，例如汽機車銷售超越2019年幅度，但仍未到2021年高點，消費與企業獲利維持強勁，農村經濟持續復甦推升，房地產銷售熱絡，私人投資及資本投資持續增加，加上通膨趨緩，企業財報優於預期，樂觀看待印度補漲行情。
*資料來源：投信投顧公會，瀚亞印度基金規模截至2023/4/30為95.7億元新台幣。
通膨有效下降 升息循環暫停
印度通膨率大降溫，4月消費者物價指數續降溫至4.7%，不僅創18個月新低，更是連續兩個月回到央行的目標範圍內（2~6%），有利於印度央行持續暫停升息。
各項數據顯示內部經濟、產業與消費動能持續朝疫情前水準回升。4月印度製造業 PMI升至 57.2，連續 22 個月擴張；服務業 PMI 上升至 62，為近 13 年新高、連續 21 個月擴張。
進一步觀察亞洲企業第一季季報，印度相較於其他亞洲國家展現領先復甦姿態。根據高盛資料統計至5/5，印度企業盈餘「優於預期」的比例高達48%，僅次於韓國的56%，但若加上「符合預期」的公司比重，整體合計達八成的企業盈餘符合期待以上，是亞洲區域中表現最佳的國家。
印度股市受惠短期利多、長期趨勢
林庭樟認為，通膨有效降溫，加上經濟數據快速復甦，短線市場利多消息不斷，市場預估2024財年GDP成長落在6.2%，而整體企業獲利年增率上看15%，預料將為印度股市帶來更多上漲空間及動能。
此外，印度亦具備中長期利多，包括供應鏈轉移、內部產業升級、資金回流本土等，更將促使印度逐漸擺脫外在環境（及外資）的依賴與波動，建議投資人把握目前相對低檔的機會，增持印度市場。
表、印度股市利多不斷
資料來源：瀚亞投信，2023/5
2023年4月印度溫度計分數：104.3
資料來源：ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/4
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用，請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及保誠集團（Prudential plc）共同成立之資產管理公司，目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。
瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型，並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位，跟股票落袋為安」等區間。
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