【印度溫度計】新預算政策添翼 行情逐季看漲

印度財政部2月公布2024財年(2023/4-2024/3)的新預算案,為新的一年政策方向指路。

解析新預算案三大方向,包含:(1)逐步整合財政預算與政府赤字;(2)提升政府支出與資本支出,引導經濟成長;(3)推動各項建設的實體與數位基礎建設,印度政府各項政策專注於經濟成長、創造就業機會,也可望反映在股市表現。

印度新預算案出台 驅動後市行情

瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟分析,印度2024財年以10%為GDP成長目標,整體財政支出將從2023財年3.4%GDP降至2024財年的3.2%。資本支出於基礎建設隨著基數增大,財政預算將降至2024財年的31%。

此外,政府也對私人投資持續提供稅務上的優惠扶持,例如:降低製造業企業稅至15%,或針對特定製造業調整關稅,以推動國內製造業發展。

整體來看,新預算案重點放在經濟財政整合,同時兼顧基本成長,因此市場給予中規中矩的評價;但若以中長期來看,印度市場與成熟股市相關性較低,適合納入全球資產分散配置的一環。以中長線來看,印度具備人口紅利、政策改革轉型、經濟擴張與企業雙位數成長等利多題材加持,是追求收益成長不可錯過的標的。

印股本益比回落 伺機進場

印度股市年初至今表現偏弱,短期內處於區間震盪,從估值來看,已自去年高點回落,目前本益比約20倍左右,不過,其成長潛力仍獲得全球共同基金加碼支持。

隨著通膨威脅轉降,國際貨幣基金1月小幅調升今年全球經濟成長預測至2.9%,其中印度成長率預估6.1%,成長動能獨占鰲頭,預期相對良好的經濟環境及政策仍將支撐整體股市表現。

溫度計指標回落 接近加碼訊號

根據瀚亞投信與印度當地資產管理公司ICICIPRU提供的印度溫度計指數,2022年1月指標數據為105,隨著股市良性回檔,較去年底微幅下滑,建議維持「股債平衡配置」,但已接近「加碼」階段。

林庭樟表示,今年印度因單一企業遭到做空機構狙擊,直接或間接影響部分產業,反而提供低點加碼機會。印度股市過去總是快速收復高點,今年以來出現難得修正。瀚亞投信建議投資人,把握第一季全年低點的進場時機,可單筆加碼搭配定期定額紀律投資,掌握逐季上漲的長線契機。

表:2023年1月印度溫度計分數:105

202301india

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2023/1

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

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