【印度溫度計】3A消費機會驅動 印度內需動起來

印度股市2022年以4.4%的報酬率收尾,且自2016年以來連續7年為正報酬。展望2023年,升息趨緩有助於新興市場反轉向上,而疫情後消費復甦將是推升印度股市上漲的最大亮點,尤其看好「3A」驅動力。

截至2022年12月底,印度占MSCI新興市場指數比重來到14.4%,僅次中國且近兩年增加幅度最大,全球新興市場復甦可望由印度領頭,加上通膨趨緩、經濟成長維持高速,內需市場強勁更讓印股行情看俏。隨著印度通膨狀況在央行控制下逐步走降,整體企業獲利持續以15%高速增長,帶動內資持續投入,亦驅動外資在去年末回流印度股市。

中產階級崛起 可選性消費比例攀升

印度強勁消費動能可從零售市場觀察得知,2031年規模將達到1.8兆美元,印度人均收入從現在的2,278美元上升到2031年達到5,242美元,中產階級比重增加,更多收入比例將用於可自由支配的支出,對消費市場將有重大影響。

估計未來十年,印度年收入超過35,000美元的家庭將增加五倍,達到2,500萬以上;這段時間零售市場將以9%的複合年增長率增長。

3A機會暨電商平台加持 洗牌印度消費生態

瀚亞看好印度電商崛起搭配數位平台建設的新消費型態,將帶來更多投資機會。根據摩根士丹利報告指出,最值得關注的是印度消費中的3A機會,分別為(1)Age年齡、(2)Aspiration影響性、(3)Access普及性,將促進印度消費市場的轉變。其中,印度電子商務2031年將以16%的複合年增長率增長,市值從目前510億美元增速至2,200億美元,非民生消費成長力道更為強勁。

從政策面來看,印度擁有全國性的平台或電子商務機構可協助中小型企業營運,如ONDC(Open Network for Digital Connection)是印度全國電子商務平台,促進買賣雙方媒合安全與便利;另有OCEN (Open Credit Enablement Network)確保中小企業融資服務與信用貸款便利性,將讓印度整體消費生態洗牌,且具備跳躍式成長。

印股後市看俏 搶先布局掌紅利

從投資評價來看,瀚亞投信與印度當地資產管理公司ICICIPRU提供的印度溫度計指數2022年12月指標數據顯示為112.9;對照印度股市去年同期為高檔略回、區間震盪走勢,投資建議維持「股債平衡配置」。

當前股市評價雖然不便宜,但以長期投資來看,印度具備結構性、基本面、健康的外部關係、積極的政府改革策略、及受惠去中化議題後,承接國際企業到印度設廠發展等優勢,加上通膨逐季走低,貨幣政策鬆緊適中。

尤其印度總理莫迪執政後,藉由大量基礎建設及對外招商,帶動當地市場榮景,印度在全球投資市場重要性持續增加,企業進入效率與獲利正向循環階段,有助資金持續流入股市。

看好今年印度在穩定性與經濟復甦情況下,後市值得期待,建議投資人把握第一季淡季行情時先行進場,採取定期定額方式長線布局,善用複利效果,掌握印股長線紅利契機。

2022年12月印度溫度計分數:112.9

202212india

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2022/12

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

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