【印度溫度計】世界工廠呼聲高 印股高檔動能不停歇

全球歷經升息、通膨與經濟疲軟等態勢,反觀印度股市獨占鰲頭,Sensex指數2022年12月來到歷史高點63,284。瀚亞投信表示,印股短線漲幅明顯,目前指數評價雖然不便宜,但放眼印度未來10至30年發展潛力,高檔如有短暫修正機會,均可把握時機進場。

印度當地資產管理公司ICICIPRU表示,「中國加一」投資議題持續發燒,以及印度政府推出生產激勵計劃,吸引外資企業投入,加上製造業崛起、出口市場份額上升、以及基礎建設支撐等三大關鍵,印度可望成為世界製造工廠,股市應可持續高檔動能。

三關鍵加持 印度躍居世界製造工廠

根據摩根士丹利報告,印度製造業占GDP的比重預計將從目前15.6%上升到2031年21%。而製造業的擴張產生外溢效應,促進出口市場,預估2031年出口市場份額從2021 年的2.2% 上升至 4.5%,在世界占比上將提升2倍。此外,預計印度基礎設施支出占GDP 的比重將從 2020 年的 4.6% 增加到2031 年7%~7.5%。

瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,整體來看,印度受惠於上述(1)製造業興起、(2)出口成長份額增加、(3)基礎建設支撐等三大關鍵,將於2031年前成為世界製造工廠,高速成長的經濟動能與前景值得投資人關注。

受惠升息周期 金融股漲聲響

印度央行2022年以來積極升息以抑制高通膨,12月7日再調高基準附買回利率35個基點到6.25%,今年已累計升息225個基點。林庭樟提到,印度利率處於上升或高原期,金融股持續受惠升息周期及落後補漲行情。

印度政府的政策目標,主要是在通膨與成長中取得平衡,促使國內經濟結構性增長,提高企業利潤在GDP中的份額,並且吸引外資FDI流入印度經濟,使印度能實施相對應於聯邦利率的升息動作,但又不明顯影響經濟增長,並降低股市在油價與美歐經濟上可能的波動,使印度經濟內外環境持續平穩向上。

印股高檔動能 如拉回即為進場時機

觀察瀚亞投信與印度當地資產管理公司ICICIPRU提供的印度溫度計指數,指標數據自2022年10月114.1推升到2022年11月的116,投資建議維持「股債平衡配置」。

瀚亞投信認為,印度股市評價雖然不便宜,但人口結構紅利、長遠宏觀經濟發展、健全的稅收制度,以及政府積極的改革政策,讓印度成為中國+1主題(中國以外)的投資首選。基本面來看,印度未來兩年企業獲利增長預期高達15%,加上經濟復甦、製造業興起、出口成長與強勁基礎建設支撐,股市維持高檔動能。

林庭樟認為,美國升息步調放緩,新興市場貨幣貶值最糟糕的跌勢可能已經結束,將有助於資金回流挹注印度及新興市場。雖印股創高後處於高檔震盪,建議投資人可把握短暫拉回機會進場,以定期定額方式長線布局,持續享有複利效果,掌握長線紅利契機。

2022年11月印度溫度計分數:116.0

202211india

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2022/11

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

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