【印度溫度計】印股飆上新高 瀚亞看好「印度黃金十年」

國際貨幣基金(IMF)日前公布2023年全球經濟預估,將預估由2.9%下調至2.7%,更有九成國家經濟成長遭下修,唯印度維持在6.1%保持不變,在全球大型經濟體中居首。

在內外部資金與各項強勁的經濟數據推進下,印度SENSEX指數11月中旬正式突破歷史新高,包括10月份外國資產組合淨投資(FPI),以及當地共同基金均於10月雙雙出現正流入,更同步反應印度市場的強勁動能。

印度黃金十年 潛力更勝中國

根據摩根士丹利最新報告預估,印度2030年前將成為世界第三大經濟體,對照中國過往成長軌跡,印度將不只複製其成長模式,甚至具備超越中國的潛力。

印度經濟成長與大行情才剛開始。舉例來說,印度2023年的經濟規模將達到4,000億美元,並於2028年達到5,000億美元,與中國2007年-2011年成長路徑相似;而印度私人消費將從目前2兆美元於10年內翻倍至4.5兆美元,約為中國在2015年水準。

同時,印度具備「服務中心升級」、「金融數位化」、「能源轉型」等三道轉型力量,將新印度經濟結構轉型並提升,加上印度較中國更歡迎外資FDI,較少的限制與更高的透明度,持續吸引外資企業進駐。

強勁經濟數據 推升股市動能

短期觀察印度經濟數據強勁,製造業PMI持續高檔擴張、信貸成長YoY+16%、GST稅收連續7個月超過1.4兆盧比;最新約73%的MSCI India公司公布7-9月財報,整體合於預期。

外資持股水位低,回補空間大

資金面來看,外資10月恢復淨流入股市約1.86億美元,本地共同基金也淨流入9.45億美元,充沛資金同步推升股市。

隨著升息接近尾端,降息機會浮現,短期內對所有市場一定是雨露均霑,新興市場中仍持續看好印度表現,因通膨數據僅略高於央行目標水準。此外,印度目前外資持股水位僅剩21.1%,為2012年來新低,預期未來回補空間仍大。

股債平衡配置 印度長線行情可期

觀察瀚亞投信與ICICI保誠資產管理提供的印度溫度計指數,指標數據自上月110.3上升到本月的114.1,投資建議維持「股債平衡配置」。隨著股市創新高,市場關注印度是否能持續上漲動能?印度當地資產管理公司ICICIPRU認為,就估值來看印股雖然偏貴,但從人口紅利、宏觀經濟、健全的稅收、政府改革動能等面向來看,印度是「中國+1主題(中國以外)」的布局首選。

表:2022年10月印度溫度計分數:114.1
202210india.jpg
資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2022/10

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.