【印度溫度計】印股挑戰歷史高點 多頭行情關鍵解析

印度挑戰高點在即,該繼續持有加碼?還是該保守以對?整理瀚亞印度溫度計、基金經理人及印度當地資產管理公司最新看法:印股V型反轉,多頭行情才剛啟動,目前股價尚未完全反映經濟復甦、企業獲利成長與資金行情,印度股市投資大有可為。

★【印度投資好聲音】

第一集:印度股市有何條件挑戰高點?經理人解析五大亮點 https://youtu.be/VOMLSb3X7DI 

第二集:印度投資有「機」可乘,從汽機車復甦看內需消費爆發 https://youtu.be/m0x3BlpzNZA

ICICIPru在地觀點:

印度當地資產管理公司ICICIPru認為,印度股市本波走強有三大動能,包括外資買超、穩定的通膨率、強勁的經濟數據,盤面上來看大中小型股均有亮眼表現。

印度稅收徵管及改革有成、宏觀經濟狀況佳,對股市長期樂觀看待,且目前估值相較於去年便宜,看好銀行、汽車、基礎設施等內需相關產業。

瀚亞觀點:指數上攻趨勢不變

印度Sensex指數重回6萬點,距離年初高點及去年歷史新高不遠。外資7月以來反賣為買,內資持續透過共同基金進入股市,預料指數向上攻堅的趨勢短期不變,有機會挑戰高點。

評價面來看,僅約四成公司股價反映指數水位,股價高於200日平均線以上的家數,仍低於長期平均的60%,還有相當大的推升空間。Nifty指數評價僅高於過去五年平均,而金融指數甚至略低於前五年平均,金融股有機會落後補漲。

經濟數據是支撐印股上漲的重要底氣,GST企業稅收持續走高、PMI維持高速擴張,企業獲利動能也從谷底向上;根據高盛預期,今明兩年每股盈餘EPS預估將有雙位數,分別為13%、14%。此外,印度企業股東權益報酬率(ROE)預料未來幾年迎向新高,因產能利用率、負債比降低及淨利率擴張,驅動ROE走高。

相較於全球關注的高通膨隱憂,印度7月份通膨回落,隨著農作邁入秋收,有助於支撐通膨下滑,大宗物資及能源價格也朝良性發展。此外,預期下半年季風雨量狀況將高於長年平均5%,進而農作物庫存也會高於去年同期,同樣有利於通膨下降及消費提升。

印股今年逆風有機會挑戰新高,資金行情功不可沒,隨著外資回頭買超,印度盧比匯率也可望止穩。統計過去12個月外資流入為-0.9%,為2008年金融海嘯以來最低流入水準,顯示未來還有極大成長空間;內資也穩定流入共同基金,為股市全面性提供支撐。

溫度計指標:

根據瀚亞投資與ICICI保誠資產管理提供的印度溫度計指數來看,指標數據自上月的111.3再攀升至114.2,投資建議仍維持「股債平衡配置」。其中,因印股處於多頭軌道上,尤其看好金融、消費、製造或其他落後補漲族群,將在印股多頭行情下發揮領漲動能,建議投資人挑戰新高在即,投資人可持續分批布局,遇回檔可伺機進場。

印度溫度計分數:114.2

202208india

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2022/8

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

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