【印度溫度計】內資買盤力抗外資流出 印股反彈號角響起

印度股市自6月中落底反彈,低點至7/18已反彈逾6%,並站回54,000點關卡之上,相較於全球股市或亞股今年來動輒一成至兩成的跌勢,印度股市表現雖然承壓,但也明顯抗跌。此外,世界銀行最新公布下修全球經濟成長率,印度仍保有7.5%的成長率,仍是全球經濟前進的領頭羊。

根據瀚亞投資與ICICI保誠資產管理提供的印度溫度計指數來看,反映6月份股市快速修正,最新數據自上月的114.7持續降溫至105.9,投資建議則維持「股債平衡配置」。

印股7月來出現一波反彈,瀚亞投資認為,印度市場難免受國際資金移動或干擾,建議定期定額來因應短期波動;印度在強勁的經濟成長趨勢下,長期應持有相關資產部位。

外資賣股免驚 內資法人、散戶狂買

瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印股本波修正落底反彈,更領先其他股市反轉向上,市場擔心高原油價格對於印度GDP及CPI有所衝擊,但印度央行早已啟動升息因應,且較高的進口油價將被IT服務產業出口增加所抵銷。

從資金面來看,美元指數狂升使得新興市場面臨資金外流,印度股市面臨外資連續8個月賣超,不過,境內資金DII卻可以見到境內零售客戶參與投資的力度持續擴大,維持淨流入股市,再從法人(SIP)投入股市金額來看,也接近歷史新高;整體來看,印度國內投資人流入股市金額,已抵銷外國機構投資人流出金額,支撐印度股市維持相對強勢。

股市評價仍在長期平均

根據ICICUPru預估,印度FY22財年企業獲利占GDP仍將達4.3%,是近10年來高點,顯示企業獲利穩步提升、當地資本支出維持強勁增長。林庭樟指出,對照全球景氣瀕臨衰退壓力、高通膨夾擊,相較於其他經濟體,印度經濟仍位在景氣循環之早期初升段,在政府積極穩定市場機制及供應鏈改革下,有利於支持經濟成長向上。

短線修正也讓印度股市出現加碼空間,儘管已有一段反彈,但以Nifty指數未來12月本益比預估為16.8倍,市場評價仍在十年長期平均值附近,故仍看好印度整體中長期成長,未來將帶動股市上揚機會。至於產業布局,則看好引領整體市場獲利增長的金融、循環性產業及電信產業等。

印度債券高殖利率具吸引力

瀚亞印度策略收益債券基金(本基金有相當比重投資於非投資等級 之高風險債券且配息來源可能為本金)經理人周曉蘭表示,印度債市短期供給大於需求,加上全球利率水準上揚,使得殖利率短期承壓,容易受到升息政策影響,但若從經濟成長、投資等級信評及約7.5%的殖利率收益來看,印度債市仍具備投資價值,也建議納入資產配置的一環,作為累積息收的部位。

印度溫度計分數:105.9

202206india

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2022/6

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行ICICI Bank及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,跟股票落袋為安」等區間。

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