進擊的新興債市!收益率、利差空間有魅力

2020年全球在疫情壟罩下,各國寬鬆政策競出,市場資金順勢在第二季回流新興市場債,投資人對收益率的需求仍高。

想參與全球新興市場債市收益,可透過不同債券種類,擷取不同投資優勢:
1.高度分散:分散於全球數十個新興國家,包括新興亞洲、拉美、歐非中東等不同區域。
2.多元標的:涵蓋美元主權債/類主權債、美元公司債、本地貨幣債等。
3.超額報酬:相較於其他區域相同信評債券,新興美元主權債收益率約5%,明顯提供超額風險溢酬;本地貨幣債布局一籃子新興貨幣,匯價估值低,具投資價值,收益率超過4%。

現在是進場新興市場債券的好時機?

全球低利率、降息救市環境中,新興債市依舊提供較佳的債息收益率,也具一定利差水準,目前約400 bps,仍高於十年長期平均337 bps,且利差收斂幅度尚未達到成熟市場幅度,具潛在上揚空間。對於積極型投資人來說,目前新興市場債券提供進場布局投資機會。

根據歷史經驗,觀察近十年(2010/6~2020/7)期間,當新興市場債券利差介於400~500 bps時進場,持有6個月後平均報酬率約10%,拉長至1年後,平均報酬率則為14%。

瀚亞、M&G新興市場債基金 產品線完整

瀚亞投信旗下提供兩檔全球新興市場債券基金,在穩健追求債息與資本利得的目標下,投資組合與操作策略具差異性,兼顧互補,供投資人靈活選擇、彈性配置!

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Sources:
1http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Consumption_Fast-Growth_Consumers_markets_India_report_2019.pdf#page=[6]
2https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/india
3https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/635666/ado2020-update.pdf#page=[23]
4https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_740877.pdf#page=[6]
5https://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/current-state-of-indian-economy-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/story-AmL0tZkWDGkJ5H1EA5GJ4N.html
6https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/200923-global-banking-recovery-will-stretch-to-2023-and-beyond-11661040 7https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/India/Five%20priorities%20for%20corporate%20India%20in%20the%20next%20normal%20after%20COVID%2019/Five-priorities-for-corporate-India-in-the-next-normal-after-COVID-19.pdf
8https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/M%20and%20A/Our%20insights/Indias%20post%20COVID%2019%20economic%20recovery%20The%20M%20and%20A%20imperative/Indias-post-COVID-19-economic-recovery-The-M-and-A-imperative-vF.pdf
9https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/covid-19-to-accelerate-digital-adoption-in-india-jio-helped-spur-internet-usage-morgan-stanley/articleshow/76031939.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
10https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/612516/adbi-wp1145.pdf
11https://www.livemint.com/companies/start-ups/startup-funding-down-29-in-first-half-of-2020-tracxn-11594216461904.html
12https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/612516/adbi-wp1145.pdf
13https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/india/five-priorities-for-corporate-india-in-the-next-normal-after-covid-19
14https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/McKinsey%20Digital/Our%20Insights/Digital%20India%20Technology%20to%20transform%20a%20connected%20nation/MGI-Digital-India-Report-April-2019.pdf  

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